IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Optimality of a monetary union: New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa

  • Coulibaly, Issiaka
  • Gnimassoun, Blaise

This paper aims to study the optimality of a monetary union in West Africa by using a new methodology based on the analysis of convergence and co-movements between exchange rate misalignments. Two main advantages characterize this original framework. First, it brings together the information related to several optimum currency area criteria—such as price convergence, terms of trade shocks, trade and fiscal policies—going further than previous studies which are mainly based on only one criterion at a given time. Second, our study detects potential competitiveness differentials which play a key role in the debate on the optimality or not of a monetary union, as evidenced by the recent crisis in the Euro area. Relying on the recent panel cointegration techniques, cluster analyses and robustness tests, our results show that the WAEMU area is the most homogeneous area in Central and Western Africa and could be joined by Ghana, Gambia and, to a lesser extent, Sierra Leone, and that Ghana and Senegal appear to be the best reference countries for the creation of the whole West Africa monetary union.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313001004
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 463-482

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:463-482
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  2. Sebastian Edwards, 1988. "Real and Monetary Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  6. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  7. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 302, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  8. Burcu Aydin, 2010. "Exchange Rate Assessment for Sub-Saharan Economies," IMF Working Papers 10/162, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Methodological Comparison of Beers and Feers," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
  11. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
  13. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & Olivier Damette, 2012. "La dynamique d'ajustement des taux de change réels dans la zone franc CFA," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(3), pages 545-555.
  14. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & David Guerreiro & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-34, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  15. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  16. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2009. "The Trade-Growth Nexus in the Developing Countries: a Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers 2009-04, CEPII research center.
  17. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2006. "What is Fuzzy About Clustering in West Africa?," IMF Working Papers 06/90, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 04/68, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yasser Abdih, 2006. "FEER for the CFA Franc," IMF Working Papers 06/236, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "On currency misalignments within the euro area," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-30, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  21. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," Working Paper Series rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  22. Joannes Mongardini & Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium; Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund.
  23. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1229, CESifo Group Munich.
  24. Magnus Saxegaard & Stéphane Roudet & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2007. "Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Waemu; A Robustness Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/194, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Etienne B. Yehoue & Gilles J. Dufrénot, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment; A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/164, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  27. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521855716 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C32-C61, 03.
  29. Antonia López Villavicencio, 2006. "Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies," Working Papers wpdea0605, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  30. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Hard or Soft Pegs? Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Trade in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 667-680.
  31. von Hagen, Jurgen & Neumann, Manfred J M, 1994. "Real Exchange Rates within and between Currency Areas: How Far Away Is EMU?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 236-44, May.
  32. Joannes Mongardini & Brett Rayner, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/75, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Christophe Hurlin & Valérie Mignon, 2006. "Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de panel," Working Papers halshs-00070887, HAL.
  34. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
  35. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Working Papers 2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  36. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  37. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
  38. Guillaume, Dominique M. & Stasavage, David, 2000. "Improving Policy Credibility: Is There a Case for African Monetary Unions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1391-1407, August.
  39. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  40. Romain Houssa, 2004. "Monetary Union in West Africa and Asymmetric Shocks: A Dynamic Structural Factor Model Approach," Development and Comp Systems 0409063, EconWPA.
  41. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  42. Daniel Gros & Niels Thygesen, 1990. "Vers l'union monétaire européenne : pourquoi et comment ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 131-153.
  43. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  44. Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2011. "Union Monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest: Quelles Réponses à l'Hétérogénéité des Chocs ?," Working Papers halshs-00554309, HAL.
  45. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 566-579, May.
  46. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2011. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in African countries: A panel cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 939-947, May.
  47. A. Bénassy-Quéré & Maylis Coupet, 2003. "On the Adequacy of Monetary Arrangements in Sub-Saharian Africa," THEMA Working Papers 2003-38, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  48. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  49. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:12:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Ibrahim A. Elbadawi & Linda Kaltani & Raimundo Soto, 2009. "Aid, Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Documentos de Trabajo 368, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  51. Xavier Debrun & Catherine A. Pattillo & Paul R. Masson, 2010. "Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 10/157, International Monetary Fund.
  52. Paul R. Masson, 2006. "New Monetary Unions in Africa: a Major Change in the Monetary Landscape?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 87-105.
  53. Paul R. Masson, 2008. "Currency Unions in Africa: Is the Trade Effect Substantial Enough to Justify their Formation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 533-547, 04.
  54. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  55. Xavier Debrun & Paul Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Monetary union in West Africa: who might gain, who might lose, and why?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 454-481, May.
  56. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
  57. Céline Carrère, 2004. "African Regional Agreements: Impact on Trade with or without Currency Unions," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 13(2), pages 199-239, June.
  58. Chuku, Chuku, 2012. "The proposed eco: should West Africa proceed with a common currency?," MPRA Paper 43739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2002. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Technical Working Papers 0287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
  61. Coleman, Simeon, 2004. "An Aggregate View of Macroeconomic Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Study Using Innovation Accounting," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  62. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Taux de change et mésalignements du franc CFA avant et après l’introduction de l’euro," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-3, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  63. Julie Lochard, 2005. "Mesurer l'influence des unions monetaires sur le commerce," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 5-24.
  64. Koop, Gary M & Poirier, Dale J & Tobias, Justin, 2007. "Bayesian Econometric Methods," Staff General Research Papers 12722, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  65. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521671736 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:463-482. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.