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Surprising similarities: Recent monetary regimes of small economies

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  • Rose, Andrew K.

Abstract

In contrast to earlier recessions, the monetary regimes of many small economies have not changed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This is due in part to the fact that many small economies continue to use hard exchange rate fixes, a reasonably durable regime. However, most of the new stability is due to countries that float with an inflation target. Though a few have left to join the Eurozone, no country has yet abandoned an inflation targeting regime under duress. Inflation targeting now represents a serious alternative to a hard exchange rate fix for small economies seeking monetary stability. Are there important differences between the economic outcomes of the two stable regimes? I examine a panel of annual data from more than 170 countries from 2007 through 2012 and find that the macroeconomic and financial consequences of regime-choice are surprisingly small. Consistent with the literature, business cycles, capital flows, and other phenomena for hard fixers have been similar to those for inflation targeters during the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Surprising similarities: Recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 5-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:49:y:2014:i:pa:p:5-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.05.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kang, Taesu & Kim, Geun-Young & Lee, Byongju, 2017. "Global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies, and their policy responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 153-166.
    2. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    3. Ulrich Volz, 2015. "On the Future of Inflation Targeting in East Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 638-652, August.
    4. Hyoung-kyu Chey & Geun-Young Kim & Dong Hyun Lee, 2016. "Who Are the First Users of a Newly-Emerging International Currency? A Demand-Side Study of Chinese Renminbi Internationalization," Working Papers 2016-19, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 2015. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.), Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 2, pages 013-078 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2015. "Global Imbalances and External Adjustment After the Crisis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.), Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 4, pages 105-142 Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Rose, Andrew K, 2014. "The Bond Market: An Inflation-Targeter's Best Friend," CEPR Discussion Papers 10124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:05:n:s0217590815501088 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2018. "Bond Vigilantes and Inflation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 263-300, March.
    10. M. Fratzscher & C. Grosse Steffen & M. Rieth, 2017. "Inflation Targeting as a Shock Absorber," Working papers 655, Banque de France.
    11. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2015. "Domestic bond markets and inflation," Working Paper Series 2015-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Kuosmanen, Petri & Nabulsi, Nasib & Vataja, Juuso, 2015. "Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 368-379.
    13. Fischer, Christoph, 2016. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria: An empirical strategy based on estimates of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 214-238.
    14. Luigino Bruni & Giovanni Ferri, 2015. "oes Cooperativeness Promote Happiness? Cross-country Evidence," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 107, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    15. Carl Walsh, 2015. "Goals and Rules in Central Bank Design," CESifo Working Paper Series 5293, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Prayudhi Azwar & Rod Tyers, 2015. "Indonesian Macro Policy through Two Crises," CAMA Working Papers 2015-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Carl Walsh, 2014. "Multiple Objectives and Central Bank Tradeoffs under Flexible Inflation Targeting," CESifo Working Paper Series 5097, CESifo Group Munich.
    18. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Mileva, Elitza & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 386-398.
    19. María Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2014. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals Latin American countries," Working Papers 14-05, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    20. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Li, Jie, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and real exchange rate volatility: Does inflation targeting help or hurt?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-72.
    21. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2013. "Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB13-28, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    22. Hale, Galina & Kapan, Tumer & Minoiu, Camelia, 2016. "Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effect," Working Paper Series 2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    23. repec:pal:imfecr:v:65:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1057_s41308-017-0033-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2014. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals in Latin American countries," Working Papers 2014-02, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    25. Fischer, Christoph, 2015. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113197, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Empirical; Recession; Fix; Float; Inflation; Target;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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