Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey
The growing adoption of an inflation targeting framework in emerging market economies has increased the importance of understanding inflation dynamics and forecasting its future path in these countries. The author considers the case of Turkey and investigates the performance of models that have some theoretical foundations. To this end, his study focuses on mark-up models, monetary models, and the Phillips curve. The findings suggest that the mark-up models have the best in-sample performance followed by money gap models and the Phillips curve. The empirical results from out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period covering the new economic program (May 2001-December 2002), however, show that the Phillips curve and the money gap models perform better than mark-up models. These findings, in turn, imply that (1) Phillips curves augmented with the exchange rate and money models might provide complementary views in the Turkish context; and (2) the relative importance of output gap and monetary disequilibrium in the inflation process has increased under the floating exchange rate regime. The results underscore the importance of relying on multiple models of inflation in the conduct of Turkish monetary policy.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara|
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002.
"Modern Hyper- and High Inflations,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
- Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 02/197, International Monetary Fund.
- Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," NBER Working Papers 8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "European Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 0020, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francisco d Nadal De Simone, 2000. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models," IMF Working Papers 00/162, International Monetary Fund.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
- Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
- Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
- Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992. "The power of cointegration tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1997. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 59-80, March.
- C. John McDermott & David T. Coe, 1996. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Working Papers 96/69, International Monetary Fund.
- Fung, Ben Siu-cheong & Kasumovich, Marcel, 1998. "Monetary shocks in the G-6 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 575-592, October.
- Ben S.C. Fung & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997. "Monetary Shocks in the G-6 Countries: Is There a Puzzle?," Staff Working Papers 97-7, Bank of Canada.
- Prakash Loungani & Phillip L Swagel, 2001. "Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/198, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Staff Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.
- Marco Terrones & Luis Catão, 2001. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation; A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/74, International Monetary Fund.
- Armour, J. & Atta-Mensah, J. & Engert, W. & Hendry, S., 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Staff Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada.
- Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2002. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 43-76.
- Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(21), pages 1.
- Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," Macroeconomics 0107002, EconWPA, revised 21 Jun 2005.
- Eva Gutierrez, 2003. "Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence; Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 03/53, International Monetary Fund.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
- Gunnar Jonsson, 1999. "Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 99/122, International Monetary Fund.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, EconWPA.
- Ilker Domac & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2002. "between Dollarization and Inflation : Evidence from Turkey," Discussion Papers 0207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Tim Callen & Dongkoo Chang, 1999. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in India," IMF Working Papers 99/119, International Monetary Fund.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, July.
- Engert, Walter & Hendry, Scott, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Staff Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada.
- M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38 Bank for International Settlements.
- Carlos José García T. & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2003. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Trough in Chile," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 69-88, January-J.
- De Haan, Jakob & Zelhorst, Dick, 1990. "The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 455-469, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ozlem Ekmekciler Ramalho Rocha)or (Ilker Cakar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.