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A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria

Author

Listed:
  • Armour, J.
  • Atta-Mensah, J.
  • Engert, W.
  • Hendry, S.

Abstract

A vector error-correction Model (VECM) that Forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to privide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on th effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Armour, J. & Atta-Mensah, J. & Engert, W. & Hendry, S., 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Staff Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:96-5
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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp96-5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-212, August.
    2. Perron,P., 1988. "Testing For A Random Walk: A Simulation Experiment Of Power When The Simpling Interval Is Varied," Papers 336, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    3. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, EconWPA.
    4. David E. Laidler, 1988. "Taking Money Seriously," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 687-713, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin T. Bohl & David G. Mayes & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "The Quality Of Monetary Policy And Inflation Performance: Globalization And Its Aftermath," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 617-645, June.
    2. Charles Freedman, 1996. "What operating procedures should be adopted to maintain price stability? practical issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 241-285.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos & Andrew G. Barton, 2001. "Monetary aggregates as indicators of economic activity in Canada: empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Atta-Mensah, J, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
    5. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.
    6. Engert, Walter & Hendry, Scott, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Staff Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada.
    7. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. David Longworth & Brian O´Reilly, 2002. "The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism and Policy Rules in Canada," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 13, pages 357-392 Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Mrtin Melecký, 2002. "Poptávka po penìzích v Èeské republice (M1)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 52(3), pages 76-89, March.
    10. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    11. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Staff Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    INFLATION; ECONOMIC MODELS; FORECASTS;

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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