IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/96-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria

Author

Listed:
  • Jamie Armour
  • Joseph Atta-Mensah
  • Walter Engert
  • Scott Hendry

Abstract

A vector error-correction Model (VECM) that Forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to privide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on th effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamie Armour & Joseph Atta-Mensah & Walter Engert & Scott Hendry, 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Staff Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:96-5
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-1996-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-1996-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/726/files/wp96-5.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34989/swp-1996-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-212, August.
    2. Perron,P., 1988. "Testing For A Random Walk: A Simulation Experiment Of Power When The Simpling Interval Is Varied," Papers 336, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    3. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. David E. Laidler, 1988. "Taking Money Seriously," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 687-713, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Hongyi & Siklos, Pierre L., 2022. "Central bank digital currency: A review and some macro-financial implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Mustafa Kamal Mujeri & Md Shahiduzzaman & Md Ezazul Islam, 2009. "Application of the P?Star Model for Measuring Inflationary Pressure in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 32(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin‐Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    4. Pierre L. Siklos & Andrew G. Barton, 2001. "Monetary aggregates as indicators of economic activity in Canada: empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    6. Mrtin Melecký, 2002. "Poptávka po penìzích v Èeské republice (M1)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 52(3), pages 76-89, March.
    7. David Longworth & Brian O´Reilly, 2002. "The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism and Policy Rules in Canada," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 13, pages 357-392, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_031 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Charles Freedman, 1996. "What operating procedures should be adopted to maintain price stability? practical issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 241-285.
    10. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Martin T. Bohl & David G. Mayes & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "The Quality Of Monetary Policy And Inflation Performance: Globalization And Its Aftermath," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 617-645, June.
    12. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
    13. Walter Engert & Scott Hendry, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Staff Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada.
    14. Seamus Hogan & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.
    15. Martin Melecky, 2001. "Stabilita dlouhodobe poptavky po siroce definovanych penezich v otevrene ekonomice: pripad CR 1994-2000," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/38, Czech National Bank.
    16. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Staff Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.
    17. repec:aer:wpaper:193 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Martin T. Bohl & David G. Mayes & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "The Quality Of Monetary Policy And Inflation Performance: Globalization And Its Aftermath," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 617-645, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
    2. Martin Melecky, 2001. "Stabilita dlouhodobe poptavky po siroce definovanych penezich v otevrene ekonomice: pripad CR 1994-2000," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/38, Czech National Bank.
    3. Walter Engert & Jack Selody, 1998. "Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism," Staff Working Papers 98-7, Bank of Canada.
    4. Marcel Kasumovich, 1996. "Interpreting Money-Spply and Interest-Rate Sgocks as Monetary-Policy Shocks," Staff Working Papers 96-8, Bank of Canada.
    5. David Laidler, 1999. "The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 99-5, Bank of Canada.
    6. Martin Melecký, 2002. "Analýza diskrepancí v poptávce po penìzích domácností a firem v ÈR 1994-2000 (èást I: domácnosti)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 52(7-8), pages 428-449, July.
    7. Walter Engert & Scott Hendry, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Staff Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada.
    8. Lisbeth Funding la Cour, 1995. "A Component® based Analysis of the danish Long-run Money Demand Relation," Discussion Papers 95-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    9. Siddiqi, Umema, 2021. "Estimating Long-Run Cointegration between Gold Prices and its Determinants," MPRA Paper 103182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. E. Milner-Gulland, 1993. "An econometric analysis of consumer demand for ivory and rhino horn," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(1), pages 73-95, February.
    12. Paqué, Karl-Heinz, 1991. "Structural wage rigidity in West Germany 1950-1989: Some new econometric evidence," Kiel Working Papers 489, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. José Roberto López, 1993. "Market efficiency, purchasing power parity and cointegration in Central American black foreing exchange markets," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 111-153.
    14. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
    15. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "Does the stock of money have any causal significance?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(225), pages 113-136.
    16. jose ramos pires manso, 2004. "Economical Versus Political Cycles In An Iberian Manufacturing Sector," Industrial Organization 0404003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Udo, Eli A. & Obiora, Isitua K., 2006. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the West African Monetary Zone: A System Equations Approach," Conference papers 331519, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    19. Jens R. Clausen & Juergen B. Donges, 2001. "European Monetary Policy: The Ongoing Debate on Conceptual Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(10), pages 1309-1326, November.
    20. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:96-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.