IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cje/issued/v34y2001i1p1-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary aggregates as indicators of economic activity in Canada: empirical evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre L. Siklos
  • Andrew G. Barton

Abstract

Empirical evidence linking monetary aggregates to variables such as inflation and economic growth has weakened over the past two decades. In this study we re-examine these relationships by creating composite monetary aggregates that switch among existing monetary aggregates, using quarterly data over the sample 1971-99. Overall, composite monetary aggregates appear to be useful in explaining or forecasting short-run movements in GDP growth and inflation. Also, the most successful composite monetary aggregates produce switch dates that overlap with the introduction of financial innovations. These subsequently prompted the Bank of Canada to revise or introduce new monetary aggregates.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre L. Siklos & Andrew G. Barton, 2001. "Monetary aggregates as indicators of economic activity in Canada: empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:34:y:2001:i:1:p:1-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economics.ca/cgi/xms?jab=v34n1/01.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: Available to subscribers only. Alternative access through JSTOR and Ingenta.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett & Douglas Fisher & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Money And The Economy, chapter 1, pages 3-43 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert & Davidson, Russell, 1983. "Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses : Some further results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-70, January.
    3. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 2000. "Recent Developments in the Monetary Aggregates and Their Implications," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2000(Spring), pages 3-10.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Recent developments in the analysis of monetary policy rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-12.
    5. Armour, J. & Atta-Mensah, J. & Engert, W. & Hendry, S., 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Staff Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    7. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
    8. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    9. Feldstein, Martin & Stock, James H., 1996. "Measuring money growth when financial markets are changing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 3-27, February.
    10. David Longworth & Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1995. "The Canadian Experience with Weighted Monetary Aggregates," Econometrics 9511001, EconWPA.
    11. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, EconWPA.
    12. David Laidler, 1999. "Passive Money, Active Money, and Monetary Policy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1999(Summer), pages 15-25.
    13. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
    14. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
    15. Carmichael, Calum M., 1991. "Shifts in the indicators used by the monetary authorities in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 523-534.
    16. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    17. Stock, James & Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets are Changing," Scholarly Articles 2799053, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2012. "Have structural changes eliminated the out-of-sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid-1980s? Evidence from the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3965-3985, October.
    2. Abbas Valadkhani, 2008. "Long- and Short-Run Determinants of the Demand for Money in the Asian-Pacific Countries: An Empirical Panel Investigation," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 77-90, May.
    3. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008. "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers 0803, Brock University, Department of Economics.
    4. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2006. "What Determines the Demand for Money in the Asian-Pacific Countries? An Empirical Panel Investigation," Economics Working Papers wp06-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    5. Leigh Drake & Adrian Fleissig, 2004. "Admissible Monetary Aggregates and UK Inflation Targeting," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Abbas Valadkhani, 2005. "Modelling Demand For Broad Money In Australia ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 47-64, March.
    7. repec:rfh:bbejor:v:6:y:2017:i:1:p:45-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Fassil Fanta, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, excess liquidity and stability of money demand (M3) in Australia," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 325-344.
    9. Pierre Siklos, 2010. "Taking Monetary Aggregates Seriously," e-briefs 94, C.D. Howe Institute.
    10. Hossain, Akhand Akhtar, 2010. "Monetary targeting for price stability in Bangladesh: How stable is its money demand function and the linkage between money supply growth and inflation?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 564-578, December.
    11. E Andreou & A Pelloni & M Sensier, 2003. "The effect of nominal shock uncertainty on output growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 40, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    12. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
    13. Abbas Valadkhani & Mohammad Alauddin, 2003. "Demand for M2 in Developing Countries: An Empirical Panel Investigation," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 149, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    14. Michael Graff, 2005. "Abstract," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 183-205.
    15. Graff Michael & Tang Kam Ki. & Zhang Jie, 2012. "Does Demographic Change Affect the Current Account? A Reconsideration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, December.
    16. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2008. "The Demand for Money in Transition Economies," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 35-43, June.
    17. Fassil Fanta, 2013. "Financial Deregulation, Economic Uncertainty and the Stability of Money Demand in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(4), pages 496-511, December.
    18. David Laidler, 2003. "Monetary Policy without Money: Hamlet without the Ghost," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 20037, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:34:y:2001:i:1:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Prof. Werner Antweiler). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ceaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.