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The Impact of Stochastic Extraction Cost on the Value of an Exhaustible Resource: An Application to the Alberta Oil Sands

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  • Abdullah Almansour and Margaret Insley

Abstract

The optimal management of a non-renewable resource extraction project is studied when input and output prices follow correlated stochastic processes. The decision problem is specified by two Bellman equations describing the project when it is currently operating or mothballed. Solutions are determined numerically using the Least Squares Monte Carlo methodology. The analysis is applied to an oil sands project which uses natural gas during extracting and upgrading. The paper takes into account the co-movement between crude oil and natural gas prices and proposes two price models: one incorporates a long-run link between the two while the other has no such link. Incorporating a long-run relationship between oil and natural gas prices has a significant effect on the value of the project and its optimal operation and reduces the sensitivity of the project to the natural gas price process.

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  • Abdullah Almansour and Margaret Insley, 2016. "The Impact of Stochastic Extraction Cost on the Value of an Exhaustible Resource: An Application to the Alberta Oil Sands," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej37-2-insley
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacob LaRiviere & David Kling & James N Sanchirico & Charles Sims & Michael Springborn, 2018. "The Treatment of Uncertainty and Learning in the Economics of Natural Resource and Environmental Management," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 92-112.
    2. Giorgio Ferrari & Shuzhen Yang, 2016. "On an Optimal Extraction Problem with Regime Switching," Papers 1602.06765, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    3. Galay, Gregory, 2018. "The impact of spatial price differences on oil sands investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 170-184.
    4. Ferrari, Giorgio & Koch, Torben, 2018. "An optimal extraction problem with price impact," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 603, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    5. Ferrari, Giorgio & Yang, Shuzhen, 2016. "On an optimal extraction problem with regime switching," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 562, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    6. Margaret Insley, 2013. "On the timing of non-renewable resource extraction with regime switching prices: an optimal stochastic control approach," Working Papers 1302, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2013.
    7. Giorgio Ferrari & Torben Koch, 2018. "An Optimal Extraction Problem with Price Impact," Papers 1812.01270, arXiv.org.
    8. Davis, Rebecca J. & Sims, Charles, 2016. "To Frack or Not to Frack: Option Value Analysis on the U.S. Natural Gas Market," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Insley, Margaret, 2017. "Resource extraction with a carbon tax and regime switching prices: Exercising your options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Kobari, L. & Jaimungal, S. & Lawryshyn, Y., 2014. "A real options model to evaluate the effect of environmental policies on the oil sands rate of expansion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-165.
    11. Kheiravar, Khaled H, 2019. "Economic and Econometric Analyses of the World Petroleum Industry, Energy Subsidies, and Air Pollution," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3gj151w9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

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