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Income uncertainty and the decision to invest in bulk shipping

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  • Ioannis Kyriakou
  • Panos K. Pouliasis
  • Nikos C. Papapostolou
  • Nikos K. Nomikos

Abstract

We develop a coherent framework for the valuation of real assets and determination of the optimal time to invest. To this end, we model the stochastic nature of income and develop methodologies for valuing traded derivatives to facilitate model calibration. A valuation paradigm for freight‐linked assets is then presented and, using a real option approach, we demonstrate its usefulness in investment appraisal and optimal timing of entry in the shipping industry. We find that long‐run freight rate and volatility have an impact on the decision timing and value of the investment that diminishes with increasing vessel age. As time to build declines, the value of the option to wait increases implying a high opportunity cost embedded in the investment decision due to construction lags.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis Kyriakou & Panos K. Pouliasis & Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2018. "Income uncertainty and the decision to invest in bulk shipping," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), pages 387-417, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:24:y:2018:i:3:p:387-417
    DOI: 10.1111/eufm.12132
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiayan Zhang & Jingbo Yin, 2023. "Assessment of investment decisions in bulk shipping through fuzzy real options analysis," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(1), pages 122-139, March.
    2. Lourdes Gómez-Valle & Julia Martínez-Rodríguez, 2021. "Including Jumps in the Stochastic Valuation of Freight Derivatives," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Lim, Kian Guan & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Yap, Nelson, 2019. "Understanding the fundamentals of freight markets volatility," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Adland, Roar & Prochazka, Vit, 2021. "The value of timecharter optionality in the drybulk market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Panayiotis Theodossiou & Dimitris Tsouknidis & Christos Savva, 2020. "Freight rates in downside and upside markets: pricing of own and spillover risks from other shipping segments," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1097-1119, June.
    6. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    7. Moutzouris, Ioannis C. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2019. "Earnings yield and predictability in the dry bulk shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 140-159.
    8. Lourdes Gómez-Valle & Miguel Angel López-Marcos & Julia Martínez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Two New Strategies for Pricing Freight Options by Means of a Valuation PDE and by Functional Bounds," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-12, April.
    9. Fan, Lixian & Gu, Bingmei & Yin, Jingbo, 2021. "Investment incentive analysis for second-hand vessels," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 215-225.
    10. Brignone, Riccardo & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Fusai, Gianluca, 2021. "Moment-matching approximations for stochastic sums in non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 232-247.

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