Jump Processes in Commodity Futures Prices and Options Pricing
Empirical evidence shows that log-return relatives on commodity futures prices are not normally distributed. This departure from normality seems to be caused by large price changes occurring in the commodity markets with the arrival of important new information. This suggests that a jump-diffusion model may be a plausible choice for modeling the stochastic process underlying commodity option prices. Merton (1976a) develops a jump-diffusion option pricing model assuming that jump risk is unsystematic. However, the jump-diffusion model developed by Bates (1991) is more appropriate for commodity option pricing since it allows jump risk to be systematic. In this article, recent transactions data on futures and futures options are used to test out-of-sample options using American versions of Black's diffusion and Bates's jump-diffusion models. The results show that Bates's model performs considerably better than Black's model. Jump-diffusion Asian option prices are also shown to differ considerably from geometric Brownian motion Asian option prices. Copyright 1999, Oxford University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 81 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:81:y:1999:i:2:p:273-286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.