IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ajagec/v81y1999i2p273-286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Jump Processes in Commodity Futures Prices and Options Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Jimmy E. Hilliard
  • Jorge A. Reis

Abstract

Empirical evidence shows that log-return relatives on commodity futures prices are not normally distributed. This departure from normality seems to be caused by large price changes occurring in the commodity markets with the arrival of important new information. This suggests that a jump-diffusion model may be a plausible choice for modeling the stochastic process underlying commodity option prices. Merton (1976a) develops a jump-diffusion option pricing model assuming that jump risk is unsystematic. However, the jump-diffusion model developed by Bates (1991) is more appropriate for commodity option pricing since it allows jump risk to be systematic. In this article, recent transactions data on futures and futures options are used to test out-of-sample options using American versions of Black's diffusion and Bates's jump-diffusion models. The results show that Bates's model performs considerably better than Black's model. Jump-diffusion Asian option prices are also shown to differ considerably from geometric Brownian motion Asian option prices. Copyright 1999, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimmy E. Hilliard & Jorge A. Reis, 1999. "Jump Processes in Commodity Futures Prices and Options Pricing," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 273-286.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:81:y:1999:i:2:p:273-286
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1244581
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Ormoneit & H. White, 1999. "An efficient algorithm to compute maximum entropy densities," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-140.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck, 2011. "Fat Tails, Thin Tails, and Climate Change Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 258-274, Summer.
    3. Louhichi, Kamel & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Janssen, Sander & Flichman, Guillermo & Blanco, Maria & Hengsdijk, Huib & Heckelei, Thomas & Berentsen, Paul & Lansink, Alfons Oude & Ittersum, Martin Van, 2010. "FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(8), pages 585-597, October.
    4. Gallagher, Paul W., 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10779, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004. "Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
    6. Kim, Man-Keun & Pang, Arwin, 2009. "Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 32(2), June.
    7. Barnwal, Prabhat & Kotani, Koji, 2013. "Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: An application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh, India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 95-109.
    8. repec:hrv:faseco:34728611 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. William D. Nordhaus, 2011. "The Economics of Tail Events with an Application to Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 240-257, Summer.
    10. Hennessy, David A., 2009. "Crop Yield Skewness and the Normal Distribution," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
    11. john M. Antle, 2010. "Asymmetry, Partial Moments, and Production Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1294-1309.
    12. Semaan, Josephine & Flichman, Guillermo & Scardigno, Alessandra & Steduto, Pasquale, 2007. "Analysis of nitrate pollution control policies in the irrigated agriculture of Apulia Region (Southern Italy): A bio-economic modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 357-367, May.
    13. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, January.
    14. Thomas W. Hertel & Stephanie D. Rosch, 2010. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 355-385.
    15. Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
    16. David A. Hennessy, 2009. "Crop Yield Skewness Under Law of the Minimum Technology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 197-208.
    17. Just, Richard E. & Pope, Rulon D., 1978. "Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 67-86, February.
    18. Ines Kapphan & Pierluigi Calanca & Annelie Holzkaemper, 2011. "Climate Change, Weather Insurance Design and Hedging Effectiveness," IED Working paper 11-17, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    19. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
    20. Janssen, Sander & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2007. "Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 622-636, June.
    21. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    22. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    23. Wu, Ximing, 2003. "Calculation of maximum entropy densities with application to income distribution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 347-354, August.
    24. Charles B. Moss & J. S. Shonkwiler, 1993. "Estimating Yield Distributions with a Stochastic Trend and Nonnormal Errors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1056-1062.
    25. Phillips, Donald L. & Lee, Jeffrey J. & Dodson, Rusty F., 1996. "Sensitivity of the US corn belt to climate change and elevated CO2: I. Corn and soybean yields," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 481-502, December.
    26. Orley Ashenfelter & Karl Storchmann, 2010. "Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 37(1), pages 51-64, August.
    27. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    28. Antle, John M, 1983. "Testing the Stochastic Structure of Production: A Flexible Moment-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(3), pages 192-201, July.
    29. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
    30. Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
    31. Martin L. Weitzman, 2011. "Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 275-292, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richards, Timothy J. & Nganje, William E. & Acharya, Ram N., 2008. "Hysterisis in Food Safety Investments," 110th Seminar, February 18-22, 2008, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 49888, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Jin, Yufei & Turvey, Calum G., 2004. "A General Approach To Valuing Commodity-Linked Bonds," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20039, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Calum G. Turvey, 2006. "Managing food industry business and financial risks with commodity-linked credit instruments," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 523-545.
    4. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    5. Joost M. E. Pennings & Ale Smidts, 2003. "The Shape of Utility Functions and Organizational Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, pages 1251-1263.
    6. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
    7. Chen, Gang & Roberts, Matthew C. & Roe, Brian E., 2005. "Managing Livestock Feed Cost Risks Using Futures and Options," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19399, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Chung, Shing Fung & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2014. "Analytical pricing of discrete arithmetic Asian options with mean reversion and jumps," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 130-140.
    9. Bujar Huskaj & Marcus Nossman, 2013. "A Term Structure Model for VIX Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 421-442, May.
    10. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2017. "Jumps in Commodity Markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-615, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Pennings, Joost M.E. & Garcia, Philip, 2004. "Strategic Risk Management Behavior: What Can Utility Functions Tell Us?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20388, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2002. "Weather Derivatives: Managing Risk With Market-Based Instruments," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19074, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    13. Lingfei Li & Vadim Linetsky, 2012. "Time-Changed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes And Their Applications In Commodity Derivative Models," Papers 1204.3679, arXiv.org.
    14. Wu, Feng & Myers, Robert J. & Guan, Zhengfei & Wang, Zhiguang, 2015. "Risk-adjusted implied volatility and its performance in forecasting realized volatility in corn futures prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 260-274.
    15. Chen, Gang & Roberts, Matthew C. & Roe, Brian E., 2005. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models for Commodity Futures Options," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19183, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Chen, Gang & Roberts, Matthew C. & Roe, Brian E., 2005. "Forecasting Livestock Feed Cost Risks Using Futures and Options," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19048, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    17. Schmit, Todd M. & Luo, Jianchuan & Conrad, Jon M., 2010. "Estimating the Influence of Ethanol Policy on Plant Investment Decisions: A Real Options Analysis with Two Stochastic Variables," Working Papers 126963, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    18. Arnold, Tom, 2006. "Using GMM to flatten the option volatility smile," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, March.
    19. Koekebakker, Steen & Lien, Gudbrand D., 2002. "Term Structure of Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Markets - Evidence from Option Data," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24874, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Roberto Andreotti Bodra & Afonso De Campos Pint, 2014. "Modelo De Volatilidade Estocástica Com Saltos Aplicado A Commodities Agrícolas," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 142, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    21. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management In Agricultural Markets: A Survey," 2000 Producer marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19580, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    22. Riley, John Michael & Anderson, John D., 2009. "Producer Perceptions of Corn, Soybean and Cotton Price Risk," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46865, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    23. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Analogy Based Valuation of Commodity Options," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 197334, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    24. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "Infrequent Shocks and Rating Revenue Insurance: A Contingent Claims Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(02), August.
    25. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Analogy based Valuation of Commodity Options," MPRA Paper 61083, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:81:y:1999:i:2:p:273-286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.