IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transe/v96y2016icp81-94.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Papapostolou, Nikos C.
  • Pouliasis, Panos K.
  • Nomikos, Nikos K.
  • Kyriakou, Ioannis

Abstract

Stock return predictability by investor sentiment has been subject to constant updating, but reaching a decisive conclusion seems rather challenging as academic research relies heavily on US data. We provide fresh evidence on stock return predictability in an international setting and show that shipping investor sentiment is a common leading indicator for financial markets. We establish out-of-sample predictability and demonstrate that investor sentiment is also economically significant in providing utility gains to a mean-variance investor. Finally, we find evidence that the predictive power of sentiment works best when negative forecasts are also taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:96:y:2016:i:c:p:81-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2016.10.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554516303623
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tre.2016.10.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2014. "The long of it: Odds that investor sentiment spuriously predicts anomaly returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 613-619.
    2. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    3. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    4. Sanjiv R. Das & Mike Y. Chen, 2007. "Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment Extraction from Small Talk on the Web," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1375-1388, September.
    5. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    6. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," CREATES Research Papers 2012-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2015. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 55-109.
    8. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, June.
    9. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    10. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    11. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    12. Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos & Panos K. Pouliasis & Ioannis Kyriakou, 2014. "Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1507-1539.
    13. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1413, August.
    14. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
    15. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    16. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    17. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    18. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    19. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
    20. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    21. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    22. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 2014. "Stock market efficiency and international shipping-market information," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 445-461.
    23. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:4:p:1393-1414 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    25. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    26. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    27. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Cointegration Rank Testing Under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 1719-1760, December.
    28. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2010. "Predicting Global Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-80, February.
    29. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    30. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    31. Nicholas Apergis & James E. Payne, 2013. "New Evidence on the Information and Predictive Content of the Baltic Dry Index," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-19, July.
    32. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    33. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2013. "International Stock Return Predictability: What Is the Role of the United States?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1633-1662, August.
    34. Myrto Kalouptsidi, 2014. "Time to Build and Fluctuations in Bulk Shipping," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 564-608, February.
    35. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, August.
    36. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
    37. Wright, William F. & Bower, Gordon H., 1992. "Mood effects on subjective probability assessment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 276-291, July.
    38. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
    39. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    40. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
    41. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Reis, Pedro Manuel Nogueira & Pinho, Carlos, 2020. "A new European investor sentiment index (EURsent) and its return and volatility predictability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    2. Gong, Yuting & Li, Kevin X. & Chen, Shu-Ling & Shi, Wenming, 2020. "Contagion risk between the shipping freight and stock markets: Evidence from the recent US-China trade war," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Han, Liyan & Wan, Li & Xu, Yang, 2020. "Can the Baltic Dry Index predict foreign exchange rates?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    4. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Manolis Kavussanos & Siri Pettersen Strandenes & Helen Thanopoulou, 2022. "Special issue: ends of eras and new beginnings: twenty-first century challenges for shipping," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(2), pages 347-367, June.
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Trabelsi, Nader & Wohar, Mark, 2024. "Do shipping freight markets impact commodity markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 986-1014.
    7. Rameeza Andleeb & Arshad Hassan, 2023. "Impact of Investor Sentiment on Contemporaneous and Future Equity Returns in Emerging Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, August.
    8. Konstantinos D. Melas & Photis M. Panayides & Dimitris A. Tsouknidis, 2022. "Dynamic volatility spillovers and investor sentiment components across freight-shipping markets," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(2), pages 368-394, June.
    9. Zhao, Hong-Mei & He, Hong-Di & Lu, Kai-Fa & Han, Xiao-Long & Ding, Yi & Peng, Zhong-Ren, 2022. "Measuring the impact of an exogenous factor: An exponential smoothing model of the response of shipping to COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 91-100.
    10. Pouliasis, Panos K. & Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "Shipping equity risk behavior and portfolio management," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 178-200.
    11. Sakawa, Hideaki & Watanabel, Naoki, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Japanese shipping industry: An event study approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 130-140.
    12. Çiðdem Kurt Cihangir, 2018. "Küresel Risk Algýsýnýn Küresel Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10.
    13. Zhang, X. & Chen, M.Y. & Wang, M.G. & Ge, Y.E. & Stanley, H.E., 2019. "A novel hybrid approach to Baltic Dry Index forecasting based on a combined dynamic fluctuation network and artificial intelligence method," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 361(C), pages 499-516.
    14. Bai, Xiwen & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee & Jakher, Astha, 2021. "Shipping sentiment and the dry bulk shipping freight market: New evidence from newspaper coverage," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Mo, Guoli & Zhang, Weiguo & Tan, Chunzhi & Liu, Xing, 2022. "Predicting the portfolio risk of high-dimensional international stock indices with dynamic spatial dependence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Nektarios A. Michail & Konstantinos D. Melas, 2019. "A cointegrating stock trading strategy: application to listed tanker shipping companies," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-10, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
    2. Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
    3. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
    4. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    5. Chen, Jian & Tang, Guohao & Yao, Jiaquan & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Employee sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Zhang, Huajing, 2023. "International stock return predictability: The role of U.S. uncertainty spillover," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    8. Bätje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Predicting the equity premium via its components," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145789, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Ruan, Qingsong & Wang, Zilin & Zhou, Yaping & Lv, Dayong, 2020. "A new investor sentiment indicator (ISI) based on artificial intelligence: A powerful return predictor in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 47-58.
    10. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Song, Ziyu & Yu, Changrui, 2022. "Investor sentiment indices based on k-step PLS algorithm: A group of powerful predictors of stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    14. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 228-242.
    15. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "The equity risk premium and the low frequency of the term spread," Research Discussion Papers 7/2018, Bank of Finland.
    16. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Zawadka, Dariusz, 2020. "Business sentiment and the cross-section of global equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    17. Dong, Dayong & Yue, Sishi & Cao, Jiawei, 2020. "Site visit information content and return predictability: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lin, Qi, 2018. "Technical analysis and stock return predictability: An aligned approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 103-123.
    20. Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos & Panos K. Pouliasis & Ioannis Kyriakou, 2014. "Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1507-1539.
    21. Shen, Junyan & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2017. "Investor sentiment and economic forces," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-21.
    22. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin & Seo, Sung Won, 2014. "Investor sentiment and return predictability of disagreement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 166-178.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shipping investor sentiment; Stock return predictability; Out-of-sample forecast performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:96:y:2016:i:c:p:81-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.