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End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns

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  • Møller, Stig V.
  • Rangvid, Jesper

Abstract

We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth quarter or December) strongly influences expected returns on risky financial assets, whereas economic growth during the rest of the year does not. We find this pattern for many different asset classes, across different time periods, and for US and international data. We also show that movements in the surplus consumption ratio of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), a theoretically well-founded measure of time-varying risk aversion linked to macroeconomic growth, influence expected returns stronger during the fourth quarter than the other quarters of the year. Our findings suggest that expected returns, risk aversion, and economic growth are particularly related at the end of the year, when we also expect consumers׳ portfolio adjustments to be concentrated.

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  • Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:115:y:2015:i:1:p:136-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.08.006
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    Keywords

    End-of-the-year (fourth quarter) economic growth; Expected returns; Surplus consumption ratio; Consumer confidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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