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Macroeconomic risk and seasonality in momentum profits

Author

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  • Ji, Xiuqing
  • Martin, J. Spencer
  • Yao, Yaqiong

Abstract

We contribute to the growing debate on the relation between macroeconomic risk and stock price momentum. Not only is momentum seasonal, so is its net factor exposure. We show that winners and losers only differ in macroeconomic factor loadings in January, the one month when losers overwhelmingly outperform winners. In the remainder of the year, when momentum does exist, winner and loser factor loadings offset nearly completely. Furthermore, the magnitude of macroeconomic risk premia appears to seasonally vary contra momentum. In contrast, the relatively new profitability factor does a much better job of capturing the described seasonality.

Suggested Citation

  • Ji, Xiuqing & Martin, J. Spencer & Yao, Yaqiong, 2017. "Macroeconomic risk and seasonality in momentum profits," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 76-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:36:y:2017:i:c:p:76-90
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2017.04.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Mehdi Zolfaghari & Bahram Sahabi, 2021. "The impact of oil price and exchange rate on momentum strategy profits in stock market: evidence from oil-rich developing countries," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 1981-2023, October.
    5. Houda BenMabrouk & Ismahen Souayeh, 2021. "Momentum profits: Fundamentals or time varying unsystematic risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 777-789, January.
    6. Varvara V. Nazarova & Sergei I. Leshchev, 2023. "Study of the Momentum Effect in the Price Dynamics of Highly Liquid Shares on the Russian Securities Market," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 58-73, February.
    7. Yin, Libo & Wei, Ya, 2020. "Aggregate profit instability and time variations in momentum returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Macroeconomic risk; ROE; Seasonality; January effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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