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Stock return forecasting: some new evidence

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  • Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach
  • Sharma, Susan Sunila
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

Abstract

This paper makes three contributions to the literature on forecasting stock returns. First, unlike the extant literature on oil price and stock returns, we focus on out-of-sample forecasting of returns. We show that the ability of the oil price to forecast stock returns depends not only on the data frequency used but also on the estimator. Second, out-of-sample forecasting of returns is sector-dependent, suggesting that oil price is relatively more important for some sectors than others. Third, we examine the determinants of out-of-sample predictability for each sector using industry characteristics and find strong evidence that return predictability has links to certain industry characteristics, such as book-to-market ratio, dividend yield, size, price earnings ratio, and trading volume.
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  • Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Stock return forecasting: some new evidence," Working Papers fe_2015_13, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2015_13
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    File URL: http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.05.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; Oil price; Predictability; Forecasting; Out-of-sample;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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