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Can output explain the predictability and volatility of stock returns?

  • Rodriguez, Rosa
  • Restoy, Fernando
  • Pena, J. Ignacio
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V9S-44YWN39-1/2/d58be3dd6684a6b7f844715a0e6001a2
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 163-182

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:21:y:2002:i:2:p:163-182
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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    1. Campbell, John, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207696, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
    5. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 2011. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    6. Campbell, John, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data," Scholarly Articles 3221491, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    8. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
    9. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
    10. Marathe, Achla & Shawky, Hany A., 1994. "Predictability of stock returns and real output," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 317-331.
    11. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    12. Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Peiro, Amado, 1996. "Stock Prices, Production and Interest Rates: Comparison of Three European Countries with the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-34.
    14. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
    15. Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Gallinger, George W, 1994. "Causality Tests of the Real Stock Return-Real Activity Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 271-88, Summer.
    18. Kenneth D. West, 1986. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 1833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
    20. Weil, P., 1991. "Equilibrium Asset Prices with Undiversifiable Labor Income Risk," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1564, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    21. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
    22. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "The Stock Market and Investment," NBER Working Papers 2925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revised: 22-94)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    24. Malliaris, A. G. & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1991. "An empirical investigation among real, monetary and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 151-158, October.
    25. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    26. Barry V. Cozier & Abdul H. Rahman, 1988. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 759-74, November.
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