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Can output explain the predictability and volatility of stock returns?

  • Rodriguez, Rosa
  • Restoy, Fernando
  • Pena, J. Ignacio
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V9S-44YWN39-1/2/d58be3dd6684a6b7f844715a0e6001a2
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 163-182

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:21:y:2002:i:2:p:163-182
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
    3. Campbell, John, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207696, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-31.
    5. Philippe Weil, 1992. "Equilibrium Asset Prices With Undiversifiable Labor Income Risk," NBER Working Papers 3975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. S. Grossman & R. Shiller, . "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Price," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 18-80, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Peiro, Amado, 1996. "Stock Prices, Production and Interest Rates: Comparison of Three European Countries with the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-34.
    10. Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
    12. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    13. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    14. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revised: 22-94)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    16. Barry V. Cozier & Abdul H. Rahman, 1988. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 759-74, November.
    17. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 1998. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 6611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
    19. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    20. Malliaris, A. G. & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1991. "An empirical investigation among real, monetary and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 151-158, October.
    21. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
    22. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    23. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
    24. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
    25. Marathe, Achla & Shawky, Hany A., 1994. "Predictability of stock returns and real output," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 317-331.
    26. Gallinger, George W, 1994. "Causality Tests of the Real Stock Return-Real Activity Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 271-88, Summer.
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