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Can output explain the predictability and volatility of stock returns?

  • Rodriguez, Rosa
  • Restoy, Fernando
  • Pena, J. Ignacio
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261-5606(01)00044-4
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 163-182

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:21:y:2002:i:2:p:163-182
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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    1. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May.
    3. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 1998. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 6611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. John Y. Campbell, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 3305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
    7. Weil, P., 1991. "Equilibrium Asset Prices with Undiversifiable Labor Income Risk," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1564, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    9. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    10. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-31.
    11. Malliaris, A. G. & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1991. "An empirical investigation among real, monetary and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 151-158, October.
    12. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
    13. Gallinger, George W, 1994. "Causality Tests of the Real Stock Return-Real Activity Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 271-88, Summer.
    14. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data," NBER Working Papers 3989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
    16. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
    17. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
    18. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    19. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    20. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
    21. Barry V. Cozier & Abdul H. Rahman, 1988. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 759-74, November.
    22. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1991. "Asset Returns and Intertemporal Preferences," NBER Working Papers 3633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Marathe, Achla & Shawky, Hany A., 1994. "Predictability of stock returns and real output," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 317-331.
    24. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
    25. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revised: 22-94)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    26. Peiro, Amado, 1996. "Stock Prices, Production and Interest Rates: Comparison of Three European Countries with the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-34.
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