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Latent Utility Shocks in a Structural Empirical Asset Pricing Model

  • Christensen, Bent Jesper

    (Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School)

  • Raahauge, Peter

    (Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School)

We consider a random utility extension of the fundamental Lucas (1978) equilibrium asset pricing model. The resulting structural model leads naturally to a likelihood function. We estimate the model using U.S. asset market data from 1871 to 2000, using both dividends and earnings as state variables. We find that current dividends do not forecast future utility shocks, whereas current utility shocks do forecast future dividends. The estimated structural model produces a sequence of predicted utility shocks which provide better forecasts of future long-horizon stock market returns than the classical dividend-price ratio.

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File URL: http://openarchive.cbs.dk/cbsweb/handle/10398/7135
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Paper provided by Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance in its series Working Papers with number 2004-7.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 14 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsfin:2004_007
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School, Solbjerg Plads 3, A5, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
Phone: +45 3815 3815
Web page: http://www.cbs.dk/departments/finance/Email:


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  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  10. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  11. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  13. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1995. "The equity premium: it's still a puzzle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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