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Causality Tests of the Real Stock Return-Real Activity Hypothesis

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  • Gallinger, George W

Abstract

Recent studies of the relation between real stock returns and real activity do not examine cause and effect. In this study I use Granger causality tests to examine such a relation. Results support three possibilities. First, changes in stock returns are synonymous with changes in wealth, which influence future demand for consumption and investment goods. Second, an increase in current real activity increases demands on existing capital stock, which ultimately induces future increased capital investment. The stock market anticipates these events. Third, stock returns Granger-cause a leading economic indicator, the interest rate spread between commercial paper and Treasury bills.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallinger, George W, 1994. "Causality Tests of the Real Stock Return-Real Activity Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 271-288, Summer.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:17:y:1994:i:2:p:271-88
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    Cited by:

    1. Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
    2. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 45582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek & Nauro F. Campos, 1999. "Do Stock Markets Promote Economic Growth," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 267, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Teng, Jian -Zhou & Parviaz, Javed & Chaudhary, Sunil Kumar, 2017. "Nexuses between economic factors and stock returns in China," MPRA Paper 81017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Aug 2017.
    5. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
    6. Ozlem Goktas & Aycan Hepsag, 2011. "Do stock returns lead real economic activity? Evidence from seasonal cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2117-2127.
    7. Los, Cornelis A., 2006. "System identification in noisy data environments: An application to six Asian stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1997-2024, July.
    8. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2012. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," MPRA Paper 45670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Numan Ülkü & Duminda Kuruppuarachchi, 2015. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks: Connection Restored but Delayed," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 613-622, December.
    10. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    11. Rodriguez, Rosa & Restoy, Fernando & Pena, J. Ignacio, 2002. "Can output explain the predictability and volatility of stock returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 163-182, April.
    12. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1997. "A threshold autoregressive analysis of stock returns and real economic activity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-179.
    13. Jamal BOUOIYOUR & Refk SELMI, 2016. "The responses of BRICS Equities to China's Slowdown: A Multi-Scale Causality Analysis," Working Papers 2015-2016_7, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised May 2016.
    14. repec:eee:ememar:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:140-154 is not listed on IDEAS

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