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Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Canada

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  • Barry V. Cozier
  • Abdul H. Rahman

Abstract

This paper finds evidence that, as for the United States , there exists an inverse relation between real stock returns and inflation i n Canada. Such a relation, if nonspurious, could signify a nonneutralit y of money. The authors' causality tests suggest, however, that inflation does not cause real stock returns. Instead, their empirical results support E. F. Fama's "proxy effect" hypothesis, according to which the observed inverse relation is proxying for fundamental relations between real stock returns and anticipated real activity, and between inflation and real activity. The authors therefore cannot reject the Fisherian hypothesis that variations in anticipated inflation have no effect on real stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry V. Cozier & Abdul H. Rahman, 1988. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 759-774, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:21:y:1988:i:4:p:759-74
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    Cited by:

    1. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Rahman, Abdul H., 2009. "Generalized Fama proxy hypothesis: Impact of shocks on Phillips curve and relation of stock returns with inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 135-137, June.
    2. Saqib Muneer & Babar Zaheer Butt & Kashif Ur Rehman, 2011. "A Multifactor Model of Banking Industry Stock Returns: An Emerging Market Perspective," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 2(6), pages 267-275.
    3. Isma Zaighum, 2014. "Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Non-financial firms Stock Returns: Evidence from Sectorial Study of KSE-100 Index," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(1), pages 35-48, March.
    4. Pierre Siklos & Ben Kwok, 1999. "Stock returns and inflation: a new test of competing hypotheses," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 567-581.
    5. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    6. Khan, Muhammad Irfan Khan & Meher, Muhammad Ayub Khan Mehar & Syed, Syed Muhammad Kashif, 2013. "Impact of Inflation on Dividend Policy: Synchronization of Capital Gain and Interest Rate," MPRA Paper 51593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2013.
    7. Rodriguez, Rosa & Restoy, Fernando & Pena, J. Ignacio, 2002. "Can output explain the predictability and volatility of stock returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 163-182, April.
    8. Salvatore Bruno & Ludwig Chincarini, 2010. "A historical examination of optimal real return portfolios for non‐US investors," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 161-178, October.
    9. Bruno, Salvatore & Chincarini, Ludwig, 2010. "A historical examination of optimal real return portfolios for non-US investors," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 161-178, October.
    10. Theophano Patra & Sunil Poshakwale, 2006. "Economic variables and stock market returns: evidence from the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 993-1005.

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