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A historical examination of optimal real return portfolios for non-US investors

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  • Bruno, Salvatore
  • Chincarini, Ludwig

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to explore and identify inflation as it is embedded in a broad range of asset classes beyond simply TIPS, oil, gold and real estate. The analysis is conducted primarily from the perspective of investors in a range of countries that span the developed and emerging world including resource intense economies and those that have previously experienced hyperinflation. We find that an investor who is looking for a reasonable positive real return of 4.5% while minimizing the downside risk with respect to inflation will have an allocation that consists primarily of short-term bonds, longer-term bonds, some gold, some oil, and some emerging market equities. The weight of gold and oil together is less than 10% of the portfolio and is not always relevant for all countries. We find that achieving stable real returns during hyperinflationary periods is virtually impossible without access to a vast array of short-term fixed income instruments. Despite this, the out-of-sample performance of the real return optimizations is quite promising, providing an emulative inflation protection strategy for international investors of all sorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno, Salvatore & Chincarini, Ludwig, 2010. "A historical examination of optimal real return portfolios for non-US investors," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 161-178, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:19:y:2010:i:4:p:161-178
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. E. Chuke NWUDE, 2013. "A Critical Analysis of Inflation-Hedging Capacity of Packaging Stocks in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1435-1459, November.
    2. E. Chuke NWUDE, 2013. "Inflation-Hedging Properties of Petroleum Marketing Stocks in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(12), pages 1488-1512, December.
    3. E. Chuke NWUDE, 2013. "The Impact of Inflation on Stock Market Investment Performance: Evidence from Airlines Automobiles Road Transport and Maritime Sectors Stocks of the Nigerian Stock Exchange," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 1257-1276, October.
    4. Shubhasis Dey, 2016. "Historical Events and the Gold Price," Working papers 198, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    5. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    6. Dey Shubhasis & Sampath Aravind, 2017. "Dynamic Linkages between Gold and Equity Prices: Evidence from Indian Financial Services and Information Technology Companies," Working papers 251, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    7. Gülseven, Osman & Ekici, Özgün, 2016. "The Turkish appetite for gold: An Islamic explanation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 41-49.
    8. E. Chuke NWUDE, 2013. "Are Building Materials Stocks a Hedge against Inflation in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 1343-1361, October.
    9. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:292-308 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ihsan Ullah Badshah & Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2013. "Contemporaneous Spill‐Over Among Equity, Gold, and Exchange Rate Implied Volatility Indices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 555-572, June.

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