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House prices and rents in Spain: does the discount factor matter?

  • Juan Ayuso

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Fernando Restoy

    ()

    (Banco de España)

Registered author(s):

    We estimate alternative price to rent ratios in the Spanish housing market by considering different stochastic discount factors in present value models similar to those used in the financial literature but where the higher rigidity that characterises this market is taken into account. We identify three robust across model regularities: i) the increase in the price to rent ratio since the late nineties helped at first to restore equilibrium, ii) further increases in house prices raised the ratio between 24% and 32% above equilibrium by 2004, although iii) at that time the ratio was only around 2% above its short term adjustment path towards a (new) long run equilibrium.

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/06/Fic/dt0609e.pdf
    File Function: First version, April 2006
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0609.

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    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0609
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/
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    1. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, . "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 323, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Campbell, John, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data," Scholarly Articles 3221491, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Sven Rady, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics: on the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," FMG Discussion Papers dp375, Financial Markets Group.
    4. Pietro Catte & Nathalie Girouard & Robert W.R. Price & Christophe André, 2004. "Housing Markets, Wealth and the Business Cycle," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 394, OECD Publishing.
    5. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November.
    6. Rodriguez, Rosa & Restoy, Fernando & Pena, J. Ignacio, 2002. "Can output explain the predictability and volatility of stock returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 163-182, April.
    7. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    9. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Kenny, Geoff, 2003. "Asymmetric adjustment costs and the dynamics of housing supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1097-1111, December.
    11. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
    12. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2006. "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-388, June.
    14. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
    15. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1996. "Reconciling the term structure of interest rates with the consumption-based ICAP model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 709-750, April.
    16. John Krainer, 2003. "House price bubbles," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar7.
    17. Jim Clayton, 1996. "Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 441-470.
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