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Detección de burbujas inmobiliarias: el caso español

  • José Francisco Bellod Redondo

En este trabajo examinamos el comportamiento del mercado inmobiliario español en el periodo 1989 – 2009. Hemos tratado de verificar si la intensa escalada de precios entre los años 1999 – 2007 obedece a la existencia de una burbuja especulativa o si es debida a factores fundamentales. Para ello hemos aplicado una triple metodología: test de cointegración, test no – estructurales ampliamente utilizados en la evaluación de los precios de los activos financieros (Test de Límite de la Varianza y Test de Supervivencia) y, finalmente, el Filtro de Kalman. Este último nos permite hacer un seguimiento trimestral del comportamiento especulativo de los compradores de vivienda. En conjunto, estos tests aportan evidencia empírica demostrativa de la existencia de una burbuja.

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Article provided by Grupo Eumed.net (Universidad de Málaga) in its journal Contribuciones a la Economía.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 2011-05 (May)
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Handle: RePEc:erv:contri:y:2011:i:2011-05:13
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  4. Gelembung ekonomi in Wikipedia Malay ne '')
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  6. Filtro de Kalman in Wikipedia Spanish ne '')
  7. Burbuja inmobiliaria en España in Wikipedia Spanish ne '')

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