House Price Forecasting from Investment Perspectives
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Renigier-Biłozor, Małgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Źróbek, Sabina & d’Amato, Maurizio, 2018. "Forced sale discount on property market – How to assess it?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 104-115.
- Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007.
"Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
- Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2004. "Confidence Sets for the Date of a Single Break in Linear Time Series Regressions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9hf4j4c2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Elliott, Graham & Müller, Ulrich K., 2014.
"Pre and post break parameter inference,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 141-157.
- Elliott, Graham & Müller, Ulrich K, 2014. "Pre and post break parameter inference," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4j733246, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Tom Engsted & Bent Nielsen, 2012.
"Testing for rational bubbles in a coexplosive vector autoregression,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(2), pages 226-254, June.
- Tom Engsted & Bent Nielsen, 2010. "Testing for rational bubbles in a co-explosive vector autoregression," CREATES Research Papers 2010-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Tom Engsted & Bent Nielsen, 2010. "Testing for rational bubbles in a co-explosive vector autoregression," Economics Papers 2010-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors,"
Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marc Francke & Suncica Vujic & Gerjan Vos, 2009. "Evaluation of the House Price Models Using an ECM Approach: The Case of the Netherlands," ERES eres2009_375, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Steven C. Bourassa & Martin Hoesli & Elias Oikarinen, 2019.
"Measuring House Price Bubbles,"
Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 534-563, June.
- Steven C. BOURASSA & Martin HOESLI & Elias OIKARINEN, 2016. "Measuring House Price Bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-01, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989.
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shi, Song & Jou, Jyh-Bang & Tripe, David, 2014. "Can interest rates really control house prices? Effectiveness and implications for macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-28.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988.
" Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
- Joshua Gallin, 2008. "The Long‐Run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 635-658, December.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Gattini, Luca & Hiebert, Paul, 2010.
"Forecasting and assessing Euro area house prices through the lens of key fundamentals,"
Working Paper Series
1249, European Central Bank.
- Luca GATTINI & Paul HIEBERT, 2010. "Forecasting and Assessing Euro Area House Prices Through the Lens of Key Fundamentals," EcoMod2010 259600061, EcoMod.
- Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016.
"Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
- Tom Engsted & Simon J. Hviid & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2015. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," CREATES Research Papers 2015-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Shuping Shi & Abbas Valadkhani & Russell Smyth & Farshid Vahid, 2016. "Dating the Timeline of House Price Bubbles in Australian Capital Cities," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(299), pages 590-605, December.
- Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005.
"Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
- Charles P. Himmelberg & Christopher J. Mayer & Todd M. Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:arz:wpaper:eres2009-375 is not listed on IDEAS
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
- Joseph Gyourko & Todd Sinai, 2003. "The Spatial Distribution of Housing‐Related Ordinary Income Tax Benefits," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 527-575, December.
- James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 173-187, September.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989.
"The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999.
"A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices,"
Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
- Stephen Malpezzi, 1998. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
- Song Shi & M. Humayun Kabir, 2018. "Catch Animal Spirits in Auction: Evidence from New Zealand Property Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 59-84, March.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Nuri Hacıevliyagil & Krzysztof Drachal & Ibrahim Halil Eksi, 2022. "Predicting House Prices Using DMA Method: Evidence from Turkey," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-27, March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2019. "Asymmetric adjustment, non-linearity and housing price bubbles: New international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
- repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
- Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
- Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
- Hiebert, Paul & Sydow, Matthias, 2011. "What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend–discount model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 88-98.
- Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016.
"Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
- Tom Engsted & Simon J. Hviid & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2015. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," CREATES Research Papers 2015-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
- Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
- Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013.
"The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010,"
Working Papers
04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
- Esteve García, Vicente & Navarro Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats Albentosa, María Asuncíon, 2017. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: Long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2012," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-93, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
- Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2020. "Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
- Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2014.
"Housing market volatility in the OECD area: Evidence from VAR based return decompositions,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 91-103.
- Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2013. "Housing market volatility in the OECD area: Evidence from VAR based return decompositions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
- Sean D. Campbell & Morris A. Davis & Joshua H. Gallin & Robert F. Martin, 2006. "A trend and variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio in housing markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Congregado, Emilio & Esteve, Vicente, 2022. "Cointegration with structural changes and classical model of inflation in Spain, 1830–1998," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 376-388.
- Nai Jia Lee & Tracey N. Seslen & William C. Wheaton, 2015. "Do House Price Levels Anticipate Subsequent Price Changes within Metropolitan Areas?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 782-806, September.
- Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2007. "House prices and rents in Spain: Does the discount factor matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 291-308, November.
- Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002.
"Fads or bubbles?,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
- Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Fads or Bubbles?," Econometrics 9502004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 1995.
- Huntley Schaller & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Fads or Bubbles?," Staff Working Papers 97-2, Bank of Canada.
- Kim, Jan R. & Lim, Gieyoung, 2016. "Fundamentals and rational bubbles in the Korean housing market: A modified present-value approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 174-181.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Jing, 2015.
"Cointegration of matched home purchases and rental price indexes — Evidence from Singapore,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 80-88.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Jing Li, 2015. "Cointegration of Matched Home Purchases and Rental Price Indexes: Evidence from Singapore," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 185, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Jing Li & Badi Baltagi, 2015. "Cointegration of Matched Home Purchases and Rental Price Indexes - Evidence from Singapore," ERSA conference papers ersa15p571, European Regional Science Association.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Jing Li, 2015. "Cointegration of Matched Home Purchases and Rental Price Indexes - Evidence from Sinpagore," CESifo Working Paper Series 5559, CESifo.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991.
"Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 3091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
More about this item
Keywords
housing market dynamics; price forecast; error correction model (ECM); Sydney housing market;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:10:p:1009-:d:643593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.