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Measuring volatility persistence in the presence of sudden changes in the variance of Canadian stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Farooq Malik
  • Bradley Ewing
  • James Payne

Abstract

It is well known that volatility persistence is overestimated if regime shifts are not accounted for in the standard GARCH model. This research detects time periods of sudden changes in variance using the iterated cumulated sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Using weekly data for the Canadian stock market indicates that after accounting for endogenously determined volatility shifts in the GARCH model, the estimated persistence in volatility is significantly reduced. This casts some doubt on previous findings that volatility in financial markets is highly persistent. The findings have important implications for investors and financial market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Farooq Malik & Bradley Ewing & James Payne, 2005. "Measuring volatility persistence in the presence of sudden changes in the variance of Canadian stock returns," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 1037-1056, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:38:y:2005:i:3:p:1037-1056
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Kyungwon, 2013. "Modeling financial crisis period: A volatility perspective of Credit Default Swap market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(20), pages 4977-4988.
    2. Efe Çağlar Çağli & Pinar Evrim Mandaci & Pinar Hakan Kahyaoğlu, 2011. "Volatility Shifts and Persistence in Variance: Evidence from the Sector Indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 119-140, December.
    3. Belkhouja, Mustapha & Mootamri, Imene, 2016. "Long memory and structural change in the G7 inflation dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 450-462.
    4. Kumar, Dilip, 2015. "Sudden changes in extreme value volatility estimator: Modeling and forecasting with economic significance analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 354-371.
    5. Dilip Kumar, 2016. "Sudden changes in crude oil price volatility: an application of extreme value volatility estimator," American Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3/4), pages 215-234.
    6. Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2013. "Detecting sudden changes in volatility estimated from high, low and closing prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 484-491.
    7. Altaf Muhammad & Zhang Shuguang, 2015. "Impact Of Structural Shifts on Variance Persistence in Asymmetric Garch Models: Evidence From Emerging Asian and European Markets," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(1), pages 57-70, March.
    8. Andrew stuart Duncan & Guanglingdave Liu, 2009. "Modelling South African Currency Crises As Structural Changes In The Volatility Of The Rand," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, pages 363-379.
    9. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Greek sovereign bond index, volatility, and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 687-697, October.
    10. Xu, Ke-Li, 2013. "Powerful tests for structural changes in volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 126-142.
    11. Shi, Yanlin & Ho, Kin-Yip, 2015. "Modeling high-frequency volatility with three-state FIGARCH models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 473-483.
    12. Hassan Heidari & Salih Turan Katircioglu & Sahar Bashiri, 2013. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and growth in the Iranian economy: an application of BGARCH-M model with BEKK approach," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 819-832, November.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-401 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bruce Q. Budd, 2016. "Structural break tests and the Greek sovereign debt crisis: revisited," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(3), pages 607-622, July.
    15. Gordon J. Ross, 2012. "Modeling Financial Volatility in the Presence of Abrupt Changes," Papers 1212.6016, arXiv.org.
    16. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Akram Hasanov & Stilianos Fountas, 2011. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from two Transition Economies," Discussion Paper Series 2011_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2011.
    17. Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "On the relationship of persistence and number of breaks in volatility: new evidence for three CEE countries," MPRA Paper 27927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Bidarkota, Prasad V. & Dupoyet, Brice V. & McCulloch, J. Huston, 2009. "Asset pricing with incomplete information and fat tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1314-1331, June.
    19. Ross, Gordon J., 2013. "Modelling financial volatility in the presence of abrupt changes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(2), pages 350-360.
    20. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Hasan, Syed Akif & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2012. "Is Sudden News an Origin of More Systematic Risk in Common Stocks?," MPRA Paper 45139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Ritab Al-Khouri & Abdulkhader Abdallah, 2012. "Market liberalization and volatility of returns in emerging markets: The case of Qatar Exchange (QSC)," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 106-115, June.
    22. repec:spr:jecfin:v:42:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s12197-017-9391-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cho, Hwan-Gue & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Modeling sudden volatility changes: Evidence from Japanese and Korean stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3543-3550.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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