Modeling volatility changes in the 10-year Treasury
This paper examines the daily volatility of changes in the 10-year Treasury note utilizing the iterated cumulative sums of squares algorithm [C. Inclan, G. Tiao, Use of cumulative sums of squares for retrospective detection of changes of variance, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 89 (1994) 913–923]. The ICSS algorithm can detect regime shifts in the volatility of the interest rate changes. A general model allows for endogenously determined changes in variance while the more restrictive model forces the variance to follow the same process throughout the sample period. A comparison of the out-of-sample volatility forecasting performance of two competing models is made using asymmetric error measures. The asymmetric error statistics penalize models for under- or over-predicting volatility. The results shed light on the importance of ignoring volatility regime shifts when performing out-of-sample forecasts. The findings are important to financial market participants who require accurate forecasts of future volatility in order to implement and evaluate asset performance.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 369 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Krivoruchenko, M.I. & Alessio, E. & Frappietro, V. & Streckert, L.J., 2004. "Modeling stylized facts for financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 263-266.
- Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1984.
"Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-51, June.
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
" Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
- G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1989.
"Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
- Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
- Sudipto Sarkar & Mohamed Ariff, 2002. "The effect of interest rate volatility on treasury yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 667-672.
- M. I. Krivoruchenko & E. Alessio & V. Frappietro & L. J. Streckert, 2004. "Modeling stylized facts for financial time series," Papers cond-mat/0401009, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2004.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Merton, Robert C., 1980.
"On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
- Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
- R. F. Engle & A. J. Patton, 2001. "What good is a volatility model?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 237-245.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Di Matteo, T. & Airoldi, M. & Scalas, E., 2004.
"On pricing of interest rate derivatives,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 339(1), pages 189-196.
- Malik, Farooq, 2003. "Sudden changes in variance and volatility persistence in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 217-230, July.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:369:y:2006:i:2:p:737-744. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.