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Modelling financial volatility in the presence of abrupt changes

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  • Ross, Gordon J.

Abstract

The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive days, creating temporal clusters. The GARCH model, which treats volatility as a drift process, is commonly used to capture this behaviour. However research suggests that volatility is often better described by a structural break model, where the volatility undergoes abrupt jumps in addition to drift. Most efforts to integrate these jumps into the GARCH methodology have resulted in models which are either very computationally demanding, or which make problematic assumptions about the distribution of the instruments, often assuming that they are Gaussian. We present a new approach which uses ideas from nonparametric statistics to identify structural break points without making such distributional assumptions, and then models drift separately within each identified regime. Using our method, we investigate the volatility of several major stock indexes, and find that our approach can potentially give an improved fit compared to more commonly used techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross, Gordon J., 2013. "Modelling financial volatility in the presence of abrupt changes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(2), pages 350-360.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:2:p:350-360
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2012.08.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tzouras, Spilios & Anagnostopoulos, Christoforos & McCoy, Emma, 2015. "Financial time series modeling using the Hurst exponent," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 425(C), pages 50-68.
    2. Shi, Yanlin & Ho, Kin-Yip, 2015. "Modeling high-frequency volatility with three-state FIGARCH models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 473-483.
    3. repec:spr:alstar:v:101:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10182-017-0288-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pasquale Tridico & Riccardo Pariboni, 2017. "Structural Change, Aggregate Demand And The Decline Of Labour Productivity: A Comparative Perspective," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0221, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    5. Davide De Gaetano, 2017. "Forecasting With Garch Models Under Structural Breaks: An Approach Based On Combinations Across Estimation Windows," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0219, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    6. Davide De Gaetano, 2017. "A Bootstrap Bias Correction Of Long Run Fourth Order Moment Estimation In The Cusum Of Squares Test," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0220, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    7. repec:pal:assmgt:v:17:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1057_jam.2016.12 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Asymmetric and persistent responses in price volatility of fertilizers through stable and unstable periods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 405-414.

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