Data Revisions And Out-Of-Sample Stock Return Predictability
"It has been found that the consumption-wealth ratio (cay) constructed from revised data is a strong predictor of stock market returns. This paper shows that its out-of-sample forecasting power becomes substantially weaker if cay is estimated using information available at the time of forecast. The difference, which mainly reflects periodic revisions in consumption and labor income data, is consistent with the conjecture that cay is a theoretically motivated variable. That is, revised data outperform real-time data because the former have smaller measurement errors. Nevertheless, practitioners should be cautious when they need to use real-time cay as a forecasting variable. "("JEL "G10, G14) Copyright (c) 2008 Western Economic Association International.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 47 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 18830 Brookhurst Street, Suite 304, Fountain Valley, CA 92708 USA|
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0095-2583
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0095-2583|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:47:y:2009:i:1:p:81-97. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.