IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v70y2024i1p415-438.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market

Author

Listed:
  • Stig Vinther Møller

    (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, 8210 Aarhus, Denmark; Danish Finance Institute, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark)

  • Thomas Pedersen

    (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, 8210 Aarhus, Denmark; Danish Finance Institute, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark)

  • Erik Christian Montes Schütte

    (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, 8210 Aarhus, Denmark; Danish Finance Institute, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark)

  • Allan Timmermann

    (University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093; Center for Economic and Policy Research, London EC1V 0DX, United Kingdom)

Abstract

We develop a new housing search index ( HSI ) extracted from online search activity on a limited set of keywords related to the house-buying process. We show that HSI has strong predictive power over subsequent changes in house prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample and after controlling for the effect of commonly used predictors, and relate our findings to models of search-induced frictions. Our results imply that search data can be used as an early indicator of where the market is going.

Suggested Citation

  • Stig Vinther Møller & Thomas Pedersen & Erik Christian Montes Schütte & Allan Timmermann, 2024. "Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 415-438, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:70:y:2024:i:1:p:415-438
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4672
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4672?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:70:y:2024:i:1:p:415-438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.