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House Hunting High and Low: Constructing a Housing Search Index for Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Frederico Mira Godinho
  • Katja Neugebauer

Abstract

In this paper, we build a Housing Search Index (HSI) based on Google searches made within Portugal that are related to the house-buying process. We find that this index performs well in predicting house price changes in the short-term, especially in comparison to other predictors usually applied in this literature. The predictive model also suggests that supply indicators are not as strong predictors as the HSI, and that incorporating Google search-based foreign demand HSIs to the model adds significant predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederico Mira Godinho & Katja Neugebauer, 2025. "House Hunting High and Low: Constructing a Housing Search Index for Portugal," Working Papers w202507, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202507
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2025-04/WP202507.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    2. Eli Beracha & M. Babajide Wintoki, 2013. "Forecasting Residential Real Estate Price Changes from Online Search Activity," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(3), pages 283-312.
    3. Chauvet, Marcelle & Gabriel, Stuart & Lutz, Chandler, 2016. "Mortgage default risk: New evidence from internet search queries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 91-111.
    4. Stig Vinther Møller & Thomas Pedersen & Erik Christian Montes Schütte & Allan Timmermann, 2024. "Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 415-438, January.
    5. Eli Beracha & M. Babajide Wintoki, 2013. "Forecasting Residential Real Estate Price Changes from Online Search Activity," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 283-312, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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