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Tweets, Google Trends and Sovereign Spreads in the GIIPS

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Abstract

We examine whether the information contained in social media (Twitter, Facebook & Google Blogs) and web search intensity (Google) influences financial markets. Using a multivariate system and focussing on Eurozone’s peripheral countries, the GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) as well as two of Eurozone’s core countries (France and the Nethelands), we show that social media discussion and search-related queries for the Greek debt crisis provide significant short-run information primarily for the Greek-German and Irish-German government bond yield differential even when other financial control variables (international risk, Eurozone’s risk, default risk and liquidity risk) are accounted for, and to a much lesser extent for Portuguese, Italian and Spanish sovereign yield differentials. Social media discussion and Google search-related queries for the Greek debt crisis do not affect spreads in France and the Netherlands.

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  • Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2014. "Tweets, Google Trends and Sovereign Spreads in the GIIPS," Discussion Paper Series 2014_04, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jun 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2014_04
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    Cited by:

    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2016. "Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1979, European Central Bank.
    2. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:399-411 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Boumparis, Periklis & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and sovereign credit rating decisions: Panel quantile evidence for the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 39-71.
    5. Stavros B. Thomadakis, 2015. "Growth, Debt and Sovereignty: Prolegomena to the Greek Crisis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 91, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    6. Yannis Tsirbas & Dimitri Sotiropoulos, 2015. "What Greek political elites think about Europe and the crisis? An exploratory analysis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 93, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    7. Nicholas APERGIS & Arusha COORAY, 2013. "New Evidence on the Remedies of the Greek Sovereign Debt Problem," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 79, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    8. Ana Brochado, 2016. "Investor attention and Portuguese stock market volatility: We’ll google it for you!," EcoMod2016 9345, EcoMod.
    9. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Christina Rouska, 2018. "Volatility persistence and asymmetry under the microscope: The role of information demand for gold and oil," Working Paper series 18-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    10. Nick Papandreou, 2014. "Life in the First Person and the Art of Political Storytelling:The Rhetoric of Andreas Papandreou," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 85, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    11. Sinan Esen & Feyyaz Zeren & Halil Şimdi, 2015. "CDS and Stock Market: Panel Evidence Under Cross-Section Dependency," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 31-46.
    12. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2015. "Financial indicators signaling correlation changes in sovereign bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 86-102.
    13. Nikolaos Mitinanoudis & Theologos Dergiades, 2017. "Stock Prices Predictability at Long-horizons: Two Tales from the Time-Frequency Domain," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 50(1), pages 37-61.
    14. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Angelo Martelli, 2013. "Beyond Rising Unemployment: Unemployment Risk, Crisis and Regional Adjustments in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 80, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    15. Ana Brochado, 2016. "Retail Investor Sentiment: Can We Google It?," EcoMod2016 9341, EcoMod.
    16. Rosa VAsilaki, 2016. "Policing the crisis in Greece: The others' side of the story," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 98, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    17. Nicos Christodoulakis, 2014. "The Conflict Trap in the Greek Civil War 1946-1949: An economic approach," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 83, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    18. Zhang, Yongjie & Song, Weixin & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2016. "Market reaction to internet news: Information diffusion and price pressure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 43-49.
    19. Stavros Thomadakis, Dimitrios Gounopoulos, Christos Nounis and Michalis Riginos, 2014. "Financial Innovation and Growth: Listings and IPOs from 1880 to World War II in the Athens Stock Exchange," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 86, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    20. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2014. "Financial indicators signalling correlation changes in sovereign bond markets," Working Paper Series 1746, European Central Bank.
    21. Theologos Dergiades & Eleni Mavragani & Bing Pan, 2017. "Arrivals of Tourists in Cyprus: Mind the Web Search Intensity," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 107, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    22. Vassilis Arapoglou, Kostas Gounis, 2015. "Poverty and Homelessness in Athens: Governance and the Rise of an Emergency Model of Social Crisis Management," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 90, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.

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    Keywords

    Google; social media; Greek crisis; frequency domain analysis; GIIPS.;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

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