Liquidity and the business cycle
We show evidence of a contemporaneous relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. Stock market liquidity worsen when the economy is slowing down, and this effect is most pronounced for small firms. Using data for both the US and Norway, we find strong evidence that stock market liquidity predict the current and future state of the economy. We also show some evidence that can shed light on the link between stock markets and the real economy. Using stock ownership data from Norway, we find that the portfolio compositions of investors change with the business cycle, and that investor participation is correlated with market liquidity, especially for the smallest firms. This suggest a "flight to quality" during economic downturns where traders desire to move away from equity investments in general, and within their equity portfolios, move from smaller/less liquid stocks to large/liquid stocks. Our results suggest that an important explanation for the equity premium in general, and the equity size premium in particular, may be related to time variation in stock market liquidity at business cycle frequencies
|Date of creation:||28 Jul 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo|
Phone: +47 22 31 60 00
Fax: +47 22 41 31 05
Web page: http://www.norges-bank.no/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2008_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.