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Liquidity and the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Naes, Randi

    (Ministry of Industry)

  • Skjeltorp, Johannes

    (Norges Bank)

  • Odegaard, Bernt Arne

    () (University of Stavanger)

Abstract

We show evidence of a contemporaneous relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. Stock market liquidity worsen when the economy is slowing down, and vice versa. This effect is most pronounced for small firms. Using data for both the US and Norway, we find strong evidence that stock market liquidity predict the current and future state of the economy. We also show some evidence that can shed light on the link between stock markets and the real economy. Using stock ownership data from Norway, we find that the portfolio compositions of investors change with the business cycle. Our results suggests a flight to quality during economic downturns where equity traders move from smaller/less liquid stocks to large/liquid stocks. Our results suggest that an important explanation for the equity premium in general, and the equity size premium in particular, may be related to time variation in stock market liquidity at business cycle frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Naes, Randi & Skjeltorp, Johannes & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2008. "Liquidity and the Business Cycle," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/1, University of Stavanger.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:stavef:2009_001
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?," Working Paper 2009/26, Norges Bank.
    2. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
    3. Wei Cui & Sören Radde, 2014. "Search-Based Endogenous Illiquidity and the Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1367, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2015. "Bank liquidity creation and asset market liquidity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 139-153.
    5. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "Tweets, Google trends, and sovereign spreads in the GIIPS," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 406-432.
    6. Davies, Richard & Fletcher, Mary & Marshall, Andrew, 2013. "Investigating the role of illiquidity in explaining the UK closed-end country fund discount," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 121-130.
    7. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2012. "Flights to Safety," Working Paper Research 230, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. Mccracken, 2014. "Tests Of Equal Forecast Accuracy For Overlapping Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 415-430, April.
    9. Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The (implicit) cost of equity trading at the Oslo Stock Exchange. What does the data tell us?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/17, University of Stavanger.
    10. Octavio Fernandez-Amador & Martin G�chter & Martin Larch & Georg Peter, 2011. "Monetary policy and its impact on stock market liquidity: Evidence from the euro zone," Working Papers 2011-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    11. Rösch, Christoph G. & Kaserer, Christoph, 2014. "Reprint of: Market liquidity in the financial crisis: The role of liquidity commonality and flight-to-quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 152-170.
    12. Stavros Degiannakis & Andreas Andrikopoulos & Timotheos Angelidis & Christos Floros, 2013. "Return dispersion, stock market liquidity and aggregate economic activity," Working Papers 166, Bank of Greece.
    13. Cunha, Ronan & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Automatic model selection for forecasting Brazilian stock returns," Textos para discussão 398, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    14. Thomas Johann & Erik Theissen, 2013. "Liquidity measures," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 10, pages 238-255 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2013. "Typological Classification, Diagnostics, and Measurement of Flights-to-Quality," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/15, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Umit Hacioglu & Hasan Dincer, 2013. "Evaluation of conflict hazard and financial risk in the E7 economies’ capital markets," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 79-102.
    17. Rakkestad, Ketil & Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2012. "The liquidity of the Secondary Market for Debt Securities in Norway," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/12, University of Stavanger.
    18. Rösch, Christoph G. & Kaserer, Christoph, 2013. "Market liquidity in the financial crisis: The role of liquidity commonality and flight-to-quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2284-2302.
    19. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    20. Mario Meichle & Angelo Ranaldo & Attilio Zanetti, 2011. "Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(4), pages 435-453, December.
    21. Bradrania, M. Reza & Peat, Maurice, 2014. "Characteristic liquidity, systematic liquidity and expected returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 78-98.
    22. Bond, Shaun A. & Chang, Qingqing, 2012. "Liquidity dynamics across public and private markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1890-1910.
    23. Bushman, Robert M., 2014. "Thoughts on financial accounting and the banking industry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 384-395.
    24. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
    25. John Glascock & Ran Lu-Andrews, 2014. "An Examination of Macroeconomic Effects on the Liquidity of REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 23-46, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market Microstructure; Liquidity; Business Cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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