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Clustered Housing Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Ruben Hernandez-Murillo
  • Michael T. Owyang
  • Margarita Rubio

Abstract

Using a panel of U.S. city-level building permits data, we estimate a Markov-switching model of housing cycles that allows for idiosyncratic departures from a national housing cycle. These departures occur for clusters of cities that experience simultaneous housing contractions. We find that cities do not form housing regions in the traditional geographic sense. Instead, similarities in factors affecting the demand for housing (such as average winter temperature and the unemployment rate) appear to be more important determinants of cyclical comovements than similarities in factors affecting the supply for housing (such as housing density and the availability of developable land).

Suggested Citation

  • Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2015. "Clustered Housing Cycles," Working Papers (Old Series) 1524, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1524
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    2. Michael Funke & Robert Kirkby & Petar Mihaylovski, 2017. "House Prices and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of New Zealand," CESifo Working Paper Series 6487, CESifo.
    3. Fontana, Alessandro & Corradin, Stefano, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
    4. Michael Funke & Petar Mihaylovski & Adrian Wende, 2018. "Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 6887, CESifo.
    5. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    6. Coroneo, Laura & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    clustered Markov switching; business cycles; building permits; comovements;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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