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Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data

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  • Oikarinen, Elias

Abstract

There are a number of reasons to assume that significant interdependences exist between the financial asset markets and the housing market. Identifying the linkages between stock, bond and housing markets may improve return forecasts in different asset markets. Interdependence and predictability of different asset prices is of importance concerning portfolio diversification and allocation, especially from long-term investors point of view. Furthermore, linkages between asset classes are likely to have significant policy implications. The purpose of this paper is to study the long- and short-term dynamic interdependences between stock, bond and housing markets using time series econometrics and utilizing a quarterly dataset from Finland over 1970-2005. In addition to short-term dynamics, there also appears to be long-run interrelations between the asset prices according to cointegration analysis. There is clearly a structural break in the long-run relationship between stock and housing prices in the early 1990s. Interaction between the markets seems to have diminished after the break. In line with the theory and previous research, it is found that stock appreciation Granger caused housing price changes prior to 1993. Since 1993, in turn, stock appreciation seems to have Granger caused housing only through a cointegrating long-run relation. Co-movement of bond price changes with stock and housing appreciation is found to be weak, although bond prices belong to a long-run relation including also stock and housing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Oikarinen, Elias, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:1004
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    2. Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2017. "Clustered housing cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 185-197.
    3. Maria I. Kyriakou & Athanasios Koulakiotis & Apostolos Kiohos & Vassilios Babalos, 2023. "Fractional Integration and Volatility Transmission Between Real Estate and Stock Markets: Novel Evidence from a FIGARCH-BEKK Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 939-962, May.
    4. Tuukka Saarimaa, 2008. "Owner-Occupied Housing and Demand for Risky Financial Assets: Some Finnish Evidence," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 22-38, Spring.
    5. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "Long- and Short-Run Relationships between House and Stock Prices in South Africa: A Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201136, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Ming-Te Lee & Chyi Lin Lee & Ming-Long Lee & Chien-Ya Liao, 2017. "Price linkages between Australian housing and stock markets," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 305-323, April.
    7. Fan, Ying & Yang, Zan & Yavas, Abdullah, 2019. "Understanding real estate price dynamics: The case of housing prices in five major cities of China✰," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 37-55.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset prices; housing; co-movement; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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