IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jof/jforec/v21y2002i3p181-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationships between Australian Real Estate and Stock Market Prices--A Case of Market Inefficiency

Author

Listed:
  • Okunev, John
  • Wilson, Patrick
  • Zurbruegg, Ralf

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between the Australian real estate and equity market between 1980 and 1999. The results from this study show three specific outcomes that extend the current literature on real estate finance. First, it is shown that structural shifts in stock and property markets can lead to the emergence of an unstable linear relationship between these markets. That is, full-sample results support bi-directional Granger causality between equity and real estate returns, whereas when sub-samples are chosen that account for structural shifts the results generally show that changes within stock market prices influence real estate market returns, but not vice versa. Second, the results also indicate that non-linear causality tests show a strong unidirectional relationship running from the stock market to the real estate market. Finally, from this empirical evidence a trading strategy is developed which offers superior performance when compared to adopting a passive strategy for investing in Australian securitized property. These results appear to have important implications for managing property assets in the funds management industry and also for the pricing efficiency within the Australian property market. Copyright © 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2002. "Relationships between Australian Real Estate and Stock Market Prices--A Case of Market Inefficiency," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 181-192, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:21:y:2002:i:3:p:181-92
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ling, David C & Naranjo, Andy, 1997. "Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-307, May.
    2. Liu, Crocker H & Mei, Jianping, 1992. "The Predictability of Returns on Equity REITs and Their Co-movement with Other Assets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 401-418, December.
    3. Patrick J. Wilson & John Okunev, 1999. "Long-Term Dependencies and Long Run non-Periodic Co-Cycles: Real Estate and Stock Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 257-278.
    4. Daniel C. Quan & Sheridan Titman, 1999. "Do Real Estate Prices and Stock Prices Move Together? An International Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 183-207.
    5. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Guy Ta, 1994. "Are Real Estate and Securities Markets Integrated? Some Australian Evidence," Working Paper Series 42, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. John Okunev & Patrick J. Wilson, 1997. "Using Nonlinear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 487-503.
    8. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 1999. "The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 483-515.
    9. Chinmoy Ghosh & Randall S. Guttery & C.F. Sirmans, 1997. "The Effects of the Real Estate Crisis on Institutional Stock Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 591-614.
    10. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    11. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    12. Brent W. Ambrose & Esther Ancel & Mark D. Griffiths, 1992. "The Fractal Structure of Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: The Search for Evidence of Market Segmentation and Nonlinear Dependency," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-54.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    14. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485.
    15. Wilson, Patrick James & Okunev, John & Webb, James J, 1998. "Step Interventions and Market Integration: Tests in the U.S., U.K., and Australian Property Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 91-123, January.
    16. Liu, Crocker H & Mei, Jianping, 1994. "An Analysis of Real-Estate Risk Using the Present Value Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 5-20, January.
    17. Mike Miles & Rebel Cole & David Guilkey, 1990. "A Different Look at Commercial Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 403-430.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tracey West & Andrew C. Worthington, 2003. "Macroeconomic risk factors in Australian commercial real estate, listed property trust and property sector stock returns: A comparative analysis using GARCH-M," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 160, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    2. Guttler, Caio & Meurer, Roberto & Da Silva, Sergio, 2006. "Informational inefficiency of the Brazilian stockmarket," MPRA Paper 1980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos, 2016. "Dynamic interdependencies among the housing market, stock market, policy uncertainty and the macroeconomy in the United Kingdom," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 111-122.
    4. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    5. Oikarinen, Elias, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    6. I-Chun Tsai & Cheng-Feng Lee & Ming-Chu Chiang, 2012. "The Asymmetric Wealth Effect in the US Housing and Stock Markets: Evidence from the Threshold Cointegration Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1005-1020, November.
    7. Sergio Da Silva & Roberto Meurer & Caio Guttler, 2008. "Is the Brazilian stockmarket efficient?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16.
    8. Tsai, I-Chun, 2016. "Wealth effect and investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 111-123.
    9. Chen, Zhenxi, 2016. "Regimes dependent speculative trading: Evidence from the United States housing market," FinMaP-Working Papers 66, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    10. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    11. Razmi, Fatemeh & M., Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The effects of oil price and US economy on Thailand's macroeconomy: The role of monetary transmission mechanism," MPRA Paper 69096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Razmi, Fatemeh & Mohamed, Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The role of monetary policy in macroeconomic volatility of ASEAN-4 countries against oil price shock over time," MPRA Paper 65714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:1:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    16. Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2008. "Measuring and testing Granger causality over the spectrum: An application to European production expectation surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 414-431.
    17. Tsang-Yao CHANG & Hao FANG & Yen-Hsien LEE, 2015. "Nonlinear A Djustment To The Long-Run Equilibrium Between The Reit And The Stock Markets In Japan And Singapore," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 27-38, September.
    18. Tsai, I-Chun, 2015. "Dynamic information transfer in the United States housing and stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 215-230.
    19. Diks Cees & Panchenko Valentyn, 2005. "A Note on the Hiemstra-Jones Test for Granger Non-causality," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, June.
    20. Alexandra Krystalogianni & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2005. "Regime switching in yield structures and real estate investment," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 279-299, May.
    21. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2015. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Macroeconomic Volatility of Association of Southeast Asian Nations-4 Countries against Oil Price Shock over Time," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 731-737.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:21:y:2002:i:3:p:181-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.