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The Predictability of International Real Estate Markets, Exchange Rate Risks and Diversification Consequences

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  • Crocker H. Liu
  • Jianping Mei

Abstract

International real estate related securities are investigated to see whether they offer any incremental diversification benefits over foreign stocks using mean-variance analysis together with a multifactor latent variable model. Diversification benefits are found to be primarily driven by unanticipated returns which are partially driven by changes in exchange rate risk. Although exchange rate risk accounts for a larger portion of the return fluctuation in real estate related securities relative to common stocks, international real estate securities provide some incremental diversification benefits over common stocks even if currency risks are hedged. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Crocker H. Liu & Jianping Mei, 1998. "The Predictability of International Real Estate Markets, Exchange Rate Risks and Diversification Consequences," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 3-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:26:y:1998:i:1:p:3-39
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    Cited by:

    1. Barry, Christopher B. & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2004. "Risk and return characteristics of property indices in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-159, June.
    2. Laura Ryan, 2010. "Nowhere to hide: an analysis of investment opportunities in listed property markets during financial market crises," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 97-131, May.
    3. Kroencke, Tim A. & Schindler, Felix, 2012. "International diversification with securitized real estate and the veiling glare from currency risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1851-1866.
    4. Khalid Almeshal & Nader Naifar, 2016. "A quantile regression approach and nonlinear analysis with Archimedean copulas to explain the movements of residential real estate prices," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 374-395.
    5. I-Chun Tsai & Cheng-Feng Lee, 2012. "The convergent behavior in REIT markets," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 42-57, February.
    6. Pat Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2003. "International Diversification of Real Estate Assets - Is it Worth It? Evidence from the Literature," Working Paper Series 126, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
    8. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    9. Bardhan Ashok & Tang John, 2010. "What Kind of Job is Safer? A Note on Occupational Vulnerability," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, January.
    10. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Yau, Ruey & Wu, Jyun-Yi, 2009. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure and Industry Characteristics : Evidence from Japanese Data," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 57-69, June.
    11. Eichholtz, Piet & Koedijk, Kees & Schweitzer, Mark, 2001. "Global property investment and the costs of international diversification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 349-366, June.
    12. Foort Hamelink & Martin Hoesli, 2004. "What Factors Determine International Real Estate Security Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 437-462, September.
    13. Tien Foo Sing & Leiting Deng & Hong Wang, 2007. "Tests of common real estate risk premia in a time-varying expected return framework," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 359-369, July.
    14. repec:ire:issued:v:21:n:01:2018:p:93-112 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jian Yang & James Kolari & Guozhong Zhu, 2005. "European public real estate market integration," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(13), pages 895-905.
    16. Craig Ellis & Patrick J. Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2007. "Real Estate ‘Value’ Stocks and International Diversification," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 265-287, September.
    17. Haß, Lars Helge & Johanning, Lutz & Rudolph, Bernd & Schweizer, Denis, 2012. "Open-ended property funds: Risk and return profile — Diversification benefits and liquidity risks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 90-107.
    18. Mohamadou L. Fadi & Yongsheng Wang, 2014. "Common Stochastic Volatility in International Real Estate Market," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 131-139.
    19. Piet Eichholtz & Nils Gugler & Nils Kok, 2011. "Transparency, Integration, and the Cost of International Real Estate Investments," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 152-173, July.
    20. Kim Hiang Liow, 2008. "Financial Crisis and Asian Real Estate Securities Market Interdependence: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 127-155, November.

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