Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration
This paper studies the predictability of monthly excess returns on equity portfolios over the domestic short-term interest rate in the U.S. and Japan during the period 1971:1-1989:3. The paper finds that similar variables, including the dividend-price ratio and interest rate variables, help to forecast excess returns in each country. In addition, in the 1980's U.S. variables help to forecast excess Japanese stock returns. There is evidence of common movement in expected excess returns across the two countries, which is suggestive of integration of long-term capital markets.
|Date of creation:||Dec 1989|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Journal of Finance, Volume 47, No. 1, pp. 43-69 March 1992|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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- Campbell, John, 1987.
"Stock Returns and the Term Structure,"
3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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