IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Clustered housing cycles

  • Hernández-Murillo, Rubén

    ()

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Owyang, Michael T.

    ()

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Rubio, Margarita

Using a panel of U.S. city-level building permits data, we estimate a Markov-switching model of housing cycles that allows for idiosyncratic departures from a national housing cycle. These departures occur for clusters of cities that experience simultaneous housing contractions. We find that cities do not form housing regions in the traditional geographic sense. Instead, similarities in factors affecting the demand for housing (such as average winter temperature and the unemployment rate) appear to be more important determinants of cyclical comovements than similarities in factors affecting the supply for housing (such as housing density and the availability of developable land).

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2013/2013-021.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2013-021.

as
in new window

Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision: 23 Sep 2015
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-021
Contact details of provider: Postal:
P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166

Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Oikarinen, Elias, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  3. Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2004. "Model-based Clustering of Multiple Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
  6. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  7. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 16657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2013. "Banking Deregulation and The Rise in House Price Comovement," IDEI Working Papers 799, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  9. Jim Clayton & Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2010. "Price-volume Correlation in the Housing Market: Causality and Co-movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 14-40, January.
  10. Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  11. Yannis M. Ioannides & Jeffrey E. Zabel, 2003. "Neighbourhood effects and housing demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 563-584.
  12. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 145, National Bank of Belgium.
  13. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
  14. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
  15. Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
  16. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 2000. "Regional income fluctuations: common trends and common cycles," Working Papers 00-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  17. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2008. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: A suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Working Papers 144, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  18. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  19. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
  20. Emanuel Moench & Serena Ng, 2011. "A hierarchical factor analysis of U.S. housing market dynamics," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14, pages C1-C24, 02.
  21. Ryan R. Brady, 2011. "Measuring the diffusion of housing prices across space and over time," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 213-231, March.
  22. Jarl G. Kallberg & Crocker H. Liu & Paolo Pasquariello, 2014. "On the Price Comovement of U.S. Residential Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 71-108, 03.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.