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Clustered housing cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Hernández-Murillo, Rubén

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Owyang, Michael T.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Rubio, Margarita

Abstract

Using a panel of U.S. city-level building permits data, we estimate a Markov-switching model of housing cycles that allows cities to systematically deviate from the national housing cycle. These deviations occur for clusters of cities that experience simultaneous housing contractions. We find that cities do not form housing regions in the traditional geographic sense. Instead, similarities in factors affecting the demand for housing (such as population growth or availability of credit) appear to be more important determinants of cyclical co-movements than similarities in factors affecting the supply for land (such as the availability of developable land or the elasticity of land supply).

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 May 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2017. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Working Paper Series 6354, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Fontana, Alessandro & Corradin, Stefano, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Housing; Economic indicators;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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