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Markov-Switching Models with Evolving Regime-Specific Parameters: Are Postwar Booms or Recessions All Alike?

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  • Yunjong Eo

    (University of Sydney)

  • Chang-Jin Kim

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

In this paper, we relax the assumption of constant regime-specific mean growth rates in Hamilton's (1989) two-state Markov-switching model of the business cycle. We introduce a random walk hierarchy prior for each regime-specific mean growth rate and impose a cointegrating relationship between the mean growth rates in recessionary and expansionary periods. By applying the proposed model to postwar U.S. real GDP growth (1947:Q4–2011:Q3), we uncover the evolving nature of the regime-specific mean growth rates of real output in the U.S. business cycle. Additional features of the postwar U.S. business cycle that we uncover include a steady decline in the long-run mean growth rate of real output over the postwar sample and an asymmetric error-correction mechanism when the economy deviates from its long-run equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunjong Eo & Chang-Jin Kim, 2016. "Markov-Switching Models with Evolving Regime-Specific Parameters: Are Postwar Booms or Recessions All Alike?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 940-949, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:98:y:2016:i:5:p:940-949
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