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House price cycles in Europe

Author

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  • Fontana, Alessandro
  • Corradin, Stefano

Abstract

This paper examines the house price dynamics for thirteen European countries. A Markov-switching error correction model is estimated on house price returns at the country level, with deviations between house prices and fundamentals feeding into the short-run dynamics. The system is assumed to be in either a stable regime, in which deviations from the long-run equilibrium tend to vanish over time, or in an unstable regime, in which no such correction takes place. The analysis yields three sets of results. First, house price returns in Europe are generally characterized by three (high, medium and low) phases; growth rates within regimes differ largely across countries. Second, for some European countries the observed high growth phases are associated with a stable regime. Third, European housing markets have been more in sync with each other since 2000 following a growing trend in the time-span 2002-2006 and a dramatic downturn after the Lehman collapse in 2008 and during the Euro area sovereign debt crisis. JEL Classification: G12, R11, R31

Suggested Citation

  • Fontana, Alessandro & Corradin, Stefano, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131613
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1613.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stefano Corradin & José L. Fillat & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Predictability in House Prices and Transaction Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 823-880.
    3. Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    5. Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
    6. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    7. Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2017. "Clustered housing cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 185-197.
    8. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Working Papers 0307, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hartmann, Philipp, 2015. "Real estate markets and macroprudential policy in Europe," Working Paper Series 1796, European Central Bank.
    2. Darius Kulikauskas, 2015. "Measuring fundamental housing prices in the Baltic States: empirical approach," ERES eres2015_31, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Imran Hussain Shah & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Seeking price and macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area: The role of house prices and stock prices," IREA Working Papers 201710, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    4. Kennedy, Gerard & O'Brien, Eoin & Woods, Maria, 2016. "Assessing the sustainability of Irish residential property prices: 1980Q1-2016Q2," Economic Letters 11/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Flor, Michael A. & Klarl, Torben, 2017. "On the cyclicity of regional house prices: New evidence for U.S. metropolitan statistical areas," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 134-156.
    6. Akcay, Belgin & Yucel, Eray, 2014. "Unveiling the House Price Movements and Financial Development," MPRA Paper 59377, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2014.
    7. Torben Klarl, 2016. "The nexus between housing and GDP re-visited: A wavelet coherence view on housing and GDP for the U.S," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 704-720.
    8. Dujardin, M. & Kelber, A. & Lalliard, A., 2015. "Surévaluation et rentabilité des biens immobiliers en zone euro : l’apport des données en euros par mètre carré," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 199, pages 77-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; Markov-switching and error-correction models;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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