House price cycles in Europe
This paper examines the house price dynamics for thirteen European countries. A Markov-switching error correction model is estimated on house price returns at the country level, with deviations between house prices and fundamentals feeding into the short-run dynamics. The system is assumed to be in either a stable regime, in which deviations from the long-run equilibrium tend to vanish over time, or in an unstable regime, in which no such correction takes place. The analysis yields three sets of results. First, house price returns in Europe are generally characterized by three (high, medium and low) phases; growth rates within regimes differ largely across countries. Second, for some European countries the observed high growth phases are associated with a stable regime. Third, European housing markets have been more in sync with each other since 2000 following a growing trend in the time-span 2002-2006 and a dramatic downturn after the Lehman collapse in 2008 and during the Euro area sovereign debt crisis. JEL Classification: G12, R11, R31
|Date of creation:||Nov 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Working Papers 0307, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010.
"Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: lessons for the future,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
33613, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
- John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future," SERC Discussion Papers 0049, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000.
"Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1164, Econometric Society.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
- Corradin, Stefano & Fillat, Jose L. & Vergara, Carles, 2012.
"Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs,"
IESE Research Papers
D/948, IESE Business School.
- Stefano Corradin & José L. Fillat & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Predictability in House Prices and Transaction Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 823-880.
- Stefano Corradin & José L. Fillat & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2010. "Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU10-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Corradin, Stefano & Fillat, José L. & Vergara-Alert, Carles, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs," Working Paper Series 1470, European Central Bank.
- Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009.
"Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities,"
2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.
- Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2013.
"Clustered housing cycles,"
2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 23 Sep 2015.
- Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered Housing Cycles," Discussion Papers 2013/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
- Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2015. "Clustered Housing Cycles," Working Paper 1524, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.