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House price cycles in Europe

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  • Fontana, Alessandro
  • Corradin, Stefano

Abstract

This paper examines the house price dynamics for thirteen European countries. A Markov-switching error correction model is estimated on house price returns at the country level, with deviations between house prices and fundamentals feeding into the short-run dynamics. The system is assumed to be in either a stable regime, in which deviations from the long-run equilibrium tend to vanish over time, or in an unstable regime, in which no such correction takes place. The analysis yields three sets of results. First, house price returns in Europe are generally characterized by three (high, medium and low) phases; growth rates within regimes differ largely across countries. Second, for some European countries the observed high growth phases are associated with a stable regime. Third, European housing markets have been more in sync with each other since 2000 following a growing trend in the time-span 2002-2006 and a dramatic downturn after the Lehman collapse in 2008 and during the Euro area sovereign debt crisis. JEL Classification: G12, R11, R31

Suggested Citation

  • Fontana, Alessandro & Corradin, Stefano, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131613
    Note: 1103497
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1613.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Regime switching and the responsiveness of prices to supply: The case of the Irish housing market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 82-94.
    2. Sara Ferreira Filipe, 2018. "Housing prices and mortgage credit in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 117, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    3. Ekkehard Ernst & Faten Saliba, 2018. "Are House Prices Responsible for Unemployment Persistence?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 795-833, September.
    4. Imran Hussain Shah & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Seeking price and macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area: The role of house prices and stock prices," IREA Working Papers 201710, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    5. Ampudia, Miguel & Mayordomo, Sergio, 2018. "Borrowing constraints and housing price expectations in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 410-421.
    6. Philipp Hartmann, 2015. "Real Estate Markets and Macroprudential Policy in Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 69-80, March.
    7. Darius Kulikauskas, 2015. "Measuring fundamental housing prices in the Baltic States: empirical approach," ERES eres2015_31, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    8. Akcay, Belgin & Yucel, Eray, 2014. "Unveiling the House Price Movements and Financial Development," MPRA Paper 59377, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2014.
    9. Eiglsperger, Martin & Arioli, Rodolfo & Goldhammer, Bernhard & Gonçalves, Eduardo & Kouvavas, Omiros, 2022. "Owner-occupied housing and inflation measurement," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    10. Imran H. Shah & Simón Sosvilla‐Rivero, 2021. "Incorporating asset price stability in the European Central Bank's inflation targeting framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2022-2043, April.
    11. Torben Klarl, 2016. "The nexus between housing and GDP re-visited: A wavelet coherence view on housing and GDP for the U.S," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 704-720.
    12. Kennedy, Gerard & O'Brien, Eoin & Woods, Maria, 2016. "Assessing the sustainability of Irish residential property prices: 1980Q1-2016Q2," Economic Letters 11/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Flor, Michael A. & Klarl, Torben, 2017. "On the cyclicity of regional house prices: New evidence for U.S. metropolitan statistical areas," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 134-156.
    14. Sala-Ríos, Mercé & Farré-Perdiguer, Mariona & Torres-Solé, Teresa, 2018. "How do Housing Prices and Business Cycles Interact in Spain? An Empirical Analysis/¿Cómo interactúan los precios de la vivienda y el ciclo económico en España? Un análisis empírico," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 897-920, Septiembr.
    15. Dujardin, M. & Kelber, A. & Lalliard, A., 2015. "Surévaluation et rentabilité des biens immobiliers en zone euro : l’apport des données en euros par mètre carré," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 199, pages 77-88.
    16. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Francisco J. Lozano & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2021. "Prosperity or Real Estate Bubble? Exuberance Probability Index of Real Housing Prices in Chile," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-24, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; Markov-switching and error-correction models;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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