Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs
We generalize the classic Grossman and Laroque (1990) (GL) model of optimal portfolio choice with housing and transaction costs by introducing predictability in house prices. As in the GL model, agents only move to more expensive (cheaper) houses when their wealth-to-housing ratios reach an optimal lower (upper) boundary. However, in our model, these boundaries are time-varying and depend on the dynamics of the expected growth rate of house prices. We find that households moving to a more expensive house in periods of high expected growth in house prices have significantly lower ex-ante wealth-to-housing ratios than those moving in periods of low expected growth. We also find that the share of wealth invested in risky assets is lower during periods of high expected growth in house prices and that it is higher right before moving during periods of low growth. The main implications of the model are robust to tests using household level data from the PSID and SIPP surveys. JEL Classification: G11, D11, D91, C61
|Date of creation:||Sep 2012|
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- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1998.
"Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns Are Time Varying,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1835, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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- University of Chicago & Jose L. Fillat, 2008. "Housing as a Measure for the Long Run Risk in Asset Pricing," 2008 Meeting Papers 483, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
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