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Housing purchases and the dynamics of housing wealth

  • Olympia Bover

    ()

    (Banco de España)

I model the purchase behavior of main and secondary housing by Spanish households using the panel sample from the first two waves of the Spanish household finance survey (EFF). I estimate discrete hazard models using retrospective and within-period purchase sequences. I also estimate an (S,s) model combining transactions data with longitudinal information on household wealth and housing stock values. I look at the role of adaptive expectations about the rate of return on housing and find they have a positive and signifi cant effect on the demand for houses. This is true for historical and within-period purchase probabilities as well as for the target ratio of housing wealth to total wealth. The volatility of house price growth has a negative effect on purchases for investment but a positive one on purchases for consumption.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/10/Fic/dt1036e.pdf
File Function: First version, December 2010
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Paper provided by Banco de España & Working Papers Homepage in its series Working Papers with number 1036.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1036
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/

Web page: http://www.bde.es/bde/en/secciones/informes/Publicaciones_se/docs/
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  1. Javier Andrés & Óscar Arce & Carlos Thomas, 2013. "Banking Competition, Collateral Constraints, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 87-125, December.
  2. Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks: Evidence from Automobile Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 403-36, June.
  3. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model," NBER Working Papers 14669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2010. "A Dynamic Model of Housing Demand: Estimation and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 15955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio, 2002. "Private Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of Homeownership," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 315-39, May.
  6. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Zoe Oldfield & James P. Smith, 2010. "House Price Volatility and the Housing Ladder," Working Papers 786, RAND Corporation.
  7. Mark Andrew & Geoffrey Meen, 2003. "Housing Transactions and the Changing Decisions of Young Households in Britain: The Microeconomic Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 117-138, 03.
  8. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Scholarly Articles 27693805, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2006. "Economic Fundamentals In Local Housing Markets: Evidence From U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 425-453.
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