Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs
Are housing returns predictable? If so, do households take them into account when making their housing consumption and portfolio decisions? We document the existence of housing return predictability in the U.S. at the aggregate, census region, and state level. We study a portfolio choice model in which housing returns are predictable and adjustment costs must be paid when a house is purchased or sold. We show that two state variables affect the agent's decisions: 1) her wealth-to-housing ratio; and 2) the time-varying expected growth rate of house prices. The agent buys (sells) her housing assets only when the wealth-to-housing ratio reaches an optimal upper (lower) bound. These bounds are time-varying and depend on the expected growth rate of house prices. Finally, we use household level data from the PSID and SIPP surveys to test and support the model's main implications.
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- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1998.
"Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns Are Time Varying,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1835, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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- University of Chicago & Jose L. Fillat, 2008. "Housing as a Measure for the Long Run Risk in Asset Pricing," 2008 Meeting Papers 483, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Robert F. Martin, 2003. "Consumption, durable goods, and transaction costs," International Finance Discussion Papers 756, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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