Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs
Are housing returns predictable? If so, do households take them into account when making their housing consumption and portfolio decisions? We document the existence of housing return predictability in the U.S. at the aggregate, census region, and state level. We study a portfolio choice model in which housing returns are predictable and adjustment costs must be paid when a house is purchased or sold. We show that two state variables affect the agent's decisions: 1) her wealth-to-housing ratio; and 2) the time-varying expected growth rate of house prices. The agent buys (sells) her housing assets only when the wealth-to-housing ratio reaches an optimal upper (lower) bound. These bounds are time-varying and depend on the expected growth rate of house prices. Finally, we use household level data from the PSID and SIPP surveys to test and support the model's main implications.
|Date of creation:||03 Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: IESE Business School, Av Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, SPAIN|
Web page: http://www.iese.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1996.
"Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying,"
NBER Working Papers
5857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495.
- John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1998. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns Are Time Varying," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1835, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Campbell, John & Viceira, Luis, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying," Scholarly Articles 3163266, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- Robert F. Martin, 2003. "Consumption, durable goods, and transaction costs," International Finance Discussion Papers 756, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Damgaard, Anders & Fuglsbjerg, Brian & Munk, Claus, 2003. "Optimal consumption and investment strategies with a perishable and an indivisible durable consumption good," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 209-253, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0948. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Noelia Romero)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.