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Are House Prices Responsible for Unemployment Persistence?

Author

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  • Ekkehard Ernst

    (International Labour Organisation)

  • Faten Saliba

    (University of Manchester)

Abstract

The paper analyses the ambiguous role of house prices and housing investment for unemployment dynamics. Whereas traditional models see an increase in house prices as a dynamic multiplier that contributes positively to business cycle swings, the paper considers additional transmission mechanisms via the competitiveness channel (wages) and productivity. As house prices rise, wages tend to follow in order to make up for the loss in real disposable income, which limits employment creation. In addition, with rising house prices, the relative size of the construction sector – a low-productivity industry – tends to increase, lowering aggregate productivity growth, further dampening competitiveness. The paper estimates a stylised dynamic general equilibrium model with unemployment flows. Introducing different transmission mechanisms through which the housing market influences labour and macroeconomic dynamics, the size and direction of the housing market channel is being analysed. The estimation results show that housing shocks can have long-lasting negative effects on employment even though a housing boom can generate a short-lived stimulus on growth and employment. The paper also offers some policy advice simulating housing shocks under different types of structural reforms and macro-prudential regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekkehard Ernst & Faten Saliba, 2018. "Are House Prices Responsible for Unemployment Persistence?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 795-833, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:29:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11079-018-9494-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-018-9494-z
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    3. Yanfang Sun & Haiyan Xie & Xirong Niu, 2019. "Characteristics of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Development of the Chinese Construction Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Ekkehard Ernst, 2019. "Finance and Jobs: How Financial Markets and Prudential Regulation Shape Unemployment Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, January.
    5. Nauro Campos & Karim Aynaoui & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani, 2018. "Slow Recovery to Nowhere? Labor Market Issues in Advanced Economies: Introduction," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 695-701, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing market; House prices; Unemployment; Competitiveness; Asset price booms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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