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A lost generation? Education decisions and employment outcomes during the U.S. housing boom-bust cycle of the 2000s

Author

Listed:
  • Popov, Alexander
  • Laeven, Luc

Abstract

We exploit regional variation in US house price fluctuations during the boom-bust cycle of the 2000s to study the impact of the housing cycle on young Americans' choices related to education and employment. We find that in MSAs which experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006, young adults were substantially more likely to forego a higher education and join the workforce, lowering skill formation. During the bust years, the young, especially those without higher education, were more likely to be unemployed in areas which experienced higher declines in house prices. JEL Classification: E32, G21, J10, R21

Suggested Citation

  • Popov, Alexander & Laeven, Luc, 2016. "A lost generation? Education decisions and employment outcomes during the U.S. housing boom-bust cycle of the 2000s," Working Paper Series 1892, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161892
    Note: 861282
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefano Corradin & Alexander Popov, 2015. "House Prices, Home Equity Borrowing, and Entrepreneurship," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(8), pages 2399-2428.
    2. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
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    4. Luc Laeven & Alexander Popov, 2017. "Waking Up from the American Dream: On the Experience of Young Americans during the Housing Boom of the 2000s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 861-895, August.
    5. Philippon, Thomas & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 8381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    7. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    8. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Matthew J Notowidigdo, 2019. "Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline and Labour Market Outcomes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 209-248.
    9. Martin Farnham & Lucie Schmidt & Purvi Sevak, 2011. "House Prices and Marital Stability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 615-619, May.
    10. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 367-384, March.
    11. Loutskina, Elena & Strahan, Philip E., 2015. "Financial integration, housing, and economic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 25-41.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gunes, Pinar Mine & Ural Marchand, Beyza, 2020. "Macroeconomic conditions and child schooling in Turkey," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Laeven, Luc & Popov, Alexander & Sievert, Clara, 2024. "Is religion an inferior good? Evidence from fluctuations in housing wealth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 705-725.
    3. Richard K. Crump & Christopher J. Nekarda & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2020. "Unemployment Rate Benchmarks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-072, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Popov, Alexander & Zaharia, Sonia, 2017. "Credit market competition and the gender gap: evidence from local labor markets," Working Paper Series 2086, European Central Bank.
    5. Saadi, Vahid, 2019. "Mortgage supply and the US housing boom: The role of the Community Reinvestment Act," SAFE Working Paper Series 155, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2019.
    6. Luc Laeven & Alexander Popov, 2017. "Waking Up from the American Dream: On the Experience of Young Americans during the Housing Boom of the 2000s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 861-895, August.
    7. Chen, Yihui & Li, Dongxu & Li, Ting, 2024. "Financial development and population growth: Evidence from bank concentration in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Li, Wenchao, 2024. "Do surging house prices discourage fertility? Global evidence, 1870–2012," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Zhuqing Liu & Jiadong Tong, 2023. "Housing Boom, Dutch Disease, and the Decline in China's Manufacturing Exports," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(3), pages 205-229, May.
    10. Feldmann, Horst, 2025. "The effects of remittances on school enrollment rates: A global perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    11. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    12. Saadi, Vahid, 2016. "Mortgage supply and the US housing boom: The role of the community reinvestment act," IWH Discussion Papers 32/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Ekkehard Ernst & Faten Saliba, 2018. "Are House Prices Responsible for Unemployment Persistence?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 795-833, September.
    14. Koichiro Onishi & Sadao Nagaoka, 2020. "Graduate education and long‐term inventive performance: Evidence from undergraduates' choices during recessions," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 465-491, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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