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Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in US House Prices

  • Duca, John V
  • Muellbauer, John
  • Murphy, Anthony

The U.S. house price boom has been linked to an unsustainable easing of mortgage credit standards. However, standard time series models of US house prices omit credit constraints and perform poorly in the 2000’s. We incorporate data on credit constraints for first time buyers into a model of US house prices based on the (inverted) demand for housing services. The model yields not only a stable long-run cointegrating relationship, a reasonable speed of adjustment, plausible income and price elasticities and an improved fit, but also sensible estimates of tax credit effects and the possible bottom in real house prices.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8361.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8361
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  1. John V. Duca & Tao Wu, 2009. "Regulation and the Neo-Wicksellian Approach to Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 799-807, 06.
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  4. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House prices and credit constraints: making sense of the U.S. experience," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58441, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  7. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the present crisis and managing the leverage cycle," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 101-131.
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  12. John V. Duca, 2006. "Making sense of the U.S. housing slowdown," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(nov).
  13. Alan S. Blinder & Angus Deaton, 1985. "The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 465-521.
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  23. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
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  25. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
  26. Dwight M. Jaffee & Kenneth T. Rosen, 1979. "Mortgage Credit Availability and Residential Construction," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(2), pages 333-386.
  27. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  28. Hamilton, Bruce W. & Schwab, Robert M., 1985. "Expected appreciation in urban housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 103-118, July.
  29. Danielle DiMartino & John V. Duca, 2007. "The rise and fall of subprime mortgages," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 2(nov).
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