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Shifting credit standards and the boom and bust in U.S. house prices

  • John V. Duca
  • John Muellbauer
  • Anthony Murphy

The U.S. house price boom has been linked to an unsustainable easing of mortgage credit standards. However, standard time series models of U.S. house prices omit credit constraints and perform poorly in the 2000s. We incorporate data on credit constraints for first-time buyers into a model of U.S. house prices based on the (inverted) demand for housing services. The model yields not only a stable long-run cointegrating relationship, a reasonable speed of adjustment, plausible income and price elasticities and an improved fit, but also sensible estimates of tax credit effects and the possible bottom in real house prices.

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File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/papers/2011/wp1104.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 1104.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1104
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  27. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
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