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Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?

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  • Clayton, Jim

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  • Clayton, Jim, 1997. "Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 341-363, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:14:y:1997:i:3:p:341-63
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    1. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Stavins, Robert N., 2002. "The effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 561-581, November.
    2. J. S. Shonkwiler & J. E. Reynolds, 1986. "A Note on the Use of Hedonic Price Models in the Analysis of Land Prices at the Urban Fringe," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 62(1), pages 58-63.
    3. Geltner, David & Riddiough, Timothy & Stojanovic, Srdjan, 1996. "Insights on the Effect of Land Use Choice: The Perpetual Option on the Best of Two Underlying Assets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-50, January.
    4. John F. McDonald, 2001. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Local Land Use Allocation Decisions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 277-299.
    5. Capozza, Dennis & Li, Yuming, 1994. "The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 889-904, September.
    6. Abebayehu Tegene & Keith Wiebe & Betsey Kuhn, 1999. "Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty: Conservation Easements and the Option to Develop Agricultural Land," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 203-219.
    7. Elad, R.L. & Clifton, I.D. & Epperson, J.E., 1994. "Hedonic Estimation Applied to the Farmland Market in Georgia," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 351-366, December.
    8. Paul Thorsnes & Gerald P. W. Simons, 1999. "Letting The Market Preserve Land: The Case For A Market-Driven Transfer Of Development Rights Program," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(2), pages 256-266, April.
    9. Capozza, Dennis R & Sick, Gordon A, 1991. "Valuing Long-Term Leases: The Option to Redevelop," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 209-223, June.
    10. Turvey, Calum G., 2002. "Can Hysteresis And Real Options Explain The Farmland Valuation Puzzle?," Working Papers 34131, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    11. Brian L. Bentick & Thomas F. Pogue, 1988. "The Impact on Development Timing of Property and Profit Taxation," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 64(4), pages 317-324.
    12. Vitaliano, Donald F & Hill, Constance, 1994. "Agricultural Districts and Farmland Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 213-223, May.
    13. David L. Chicoine, 1981. "Farmland Values at the Urban Fringe: An Analysis of Sale Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(3), pages 353-362.
    14. Yue Jin Shi & Timothy T. Phipps & Dale Colyer, 1997. "Agricultural Land Values under Urbanizing Influences," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 73(1), pages 90-100.
    15. Andrew J. Plantinga & Douglas J. Miller, 2001. "Agricultural Land Values and the Value of Rights to Future Land Development," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(1), pages 56-67.
    16. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    17. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-514, June.
    18. Lawrence Blume & Daniel L. Rubinfeld & Perry Shapiro, 1984. "The Taking of Land: When Should Compensation Be Paid?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(1), pages 71-92.
    19. Capozza, Dennis R. & Li, Yuming, 2002. "Optimal Land Development Decisions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 123-142, January.
    20. Williams, Joseph T, 1991. "Real Estate Development as an Option," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 191-208, June.
    21. Åke Gunnelin, 2001. "The option to change the use of a property when future property values and construction costs are uncertain," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 345-354.
    22. Robert J. Johnston & RStephen K. Swallow & Dana Marie Bauer, 2002. "Spatial Factors and Stated Preference Values for Public Goods: Considerations for Rural Land Use," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(4), pages 481-500.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 203-217.
    2. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    3. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
    4. Hao Fang & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2013. "Are the Global REIT Markets Efficient by a New Approach?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 743-757, December.
    5. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    6. Jim Clayton, 1998. "Further Evidence on Real Estate Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 41-58.
    7. John V. Duca & John N. Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "Shifting credit standards and the boom and bust in U.S. house prices," Working Papers 1104, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Koji Nakamura & Yumi Saita, 2007. "Land Prices and Fundamentals," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    9. Keith Anderson & Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2009. "Testing for periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in US REITs," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2009-11, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    10. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.), Property Markets and Financial Stability Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    12. Hommes, C.H. & Bao, T., 2015. "When Speculators Meet Constructors: Positive and Negative Feedback in Experimental Housing Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    13. Takashi Nagahata & Yumi Saita & Toshitaka Sekine & Towa Tachibana, 2004. "Equilibrium Land Prices of Japanese Prefectures: A Panel Cointegration Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-9, Bank of Japan.

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