IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jre/issued/v15n11998p41-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Further Evidence on Real Estate Market Efficiency

Author

Abstract

This article investigates the extent to which condominium apartment prices in Vancouver, British Columbia are set in an efficient asset market. The empirical results provide strong evidence against market efficiency. A number of instruments, including lagged annual returns and a measure of the deviation of price from fundamental or intrinsic value, to some extent predict future returns. This suggests that a sharp run-up in house prices is due in part to irrational expectations, and thus signals a future correction as prices ultimately reflect market fundamentals. These findings have important implications for appraisals and the mortgage underwriting process. In a booming market, property may be overvalued and hence market value appraisals may exceed intrinsic or fundamental values. Given the inevitability of a market correction in the near term, a potentially useful complement to the standard valuation process would be an assessment of the likelihood of a market correction.

Suggested Citation

  • Jim Clayton, 1998. "Further Evidence on Real Estate Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 41-58.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:15:n:1:1998:p:41-58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol15n01/v15p041.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    2. Capozza, Dennis R. & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 369-386, June.
    3. Gau, George W, 1984. "Weak Form Tests of the Efficiency of Real Estate Investment Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 19(4), pages 301-320, November.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    5. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
    6. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
    7. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    8. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 125-132.
    11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
    12. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    13. David Geltner, 1989. "Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 463-481.
    14. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1989. "A Mean-Reverting Walk Down Wall Street," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 189-202, Winter.
    15. Hamilton, Bruce W. & Schwab, Robert M., 1985. "Expected appreciation in urban housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 103-118, July.
    16. Charles Engel & Charles S. Morris, 1991. "Challenges to stock market efficiency: evidence from mean reversion studies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Sep, pages 21-35.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    18. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    19. George W. Gau, 1985. "Public Information and Abnormal Returns in Real Estate Investment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 15-31.
    20. Clayton, Jim, 1997. "Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 341-363, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maier, Gunther & Herath, Shanaka, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency. A Survey of Literature," SRE-Discussion Papers 402, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. Roberto Dieci & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "A simple model of a speculative housing market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 303-329, April.
    3. Noriko Ashiya, 2015. "Determinants of Potential Seller/Lessee Benefits in Sale¡VLeaseback Transactions," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 89-112.
    4. Chien-Wen Peng & I-Chun Tsai & Wey-Wen Wu, 2011. "Price and Volume Relationship under Housing Presale System," ERES eres2011_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Tsai, I-Chun & Peng, Chien-Wen, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear dynamic relationships between housing prices and trading volumes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 172-184.
    6. Eddie C. M. Hui & Joe T. Y. Wong, 2009. "The Forecasting Capacity of Housing Price Expectations," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(1), pages 39-61.
    7. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1138-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kang, Wensheng, 2011. "Housing price dynamics and convergence in high-tech metropolitan economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 283-291, June.
    9. Paschalis Arvanitidis, 2006. "Property Market Purpose Efficiency: An Exploratory Analysis From an Institutional Economics Perspective," ERSA conference papers ersa06p567, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    11. Song Shi & Martin Young & Bob Hargreaves, 2010. "House Price-Volume Dynamics: Evidence from 12 Cities in New Zealand," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 32(1), pages 75-100.
    12. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    13. repec:bla:reesec:v:45:y:2017:i:3:p:591-627 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Zheng, Min & Wang, Hefei & Wang, Chengzhang & Wang, Shouyang, 2017. "Speculative behavior in a housing market: Boom and bust," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 50-64.
    15. Randal Verbrugge & Alan Dorfman & William Johnson & Fred Marsh III & Robert Poole & Owen Shoemaker, 2017. "Determinants of Differential Rent Changes: Mean Reversion versus the Usual Suspects," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(3), pages 591-627, July.
    16. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    17. Diego A. Salzman & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Behavioural Real Estate," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-088/IV/DSF58, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:15:n:1:1998:p:41-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster). General contact details of provider: http://www.aresnet.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.