IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v80y2022ics0038012121001634.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Housing markets, the great crisis, and metropolitan gradients: Insights from Greece, 2000–2014

Author

Listed:
  • Vinci, Sabato
  • Bartolacci, Francesca
  • Salvia, Rosanna
  • Salvati, Luca

Abstract

Multifaceted social processes have shaped long-term economic dynamics in Europe with apparent spatial outcomes. The construction sector has been one of the industries with the most evident (crisis-driven) change in Greece, likely the most affected country in Europe. With the aim at providing a comprehensive knowledge of short-term dynamics in real estate local markets, the present study investigates spatial variations in the value of new dwellings at 54 Greek prefectures over sequential economic downturns (2000–2014). Supplemented with contextual indicators, an exploratory framework based on non-parametric correlations, multivariate statistics, and spatial regressions, was run to identify geographical patterns in the average dwelling value characteristic of economic expansion (2000–2007) and recession (2007–2014). The average value of new dwellings per surface area increased in a spatially heterogeneous fashion across Greece, with significant differences between the two time intervals. With economic expansion, the highest values of new dwellings were more likely observed in dynamic districts with agglomeration economies, upper socioeconomic functions, and transport accessibility. With recession, the spatial distribution of dwelling values was more heterogeneous and decoupled from the socioeconomic profile of local contexts, with the highest growth rate recorded in accessible rural districts and coastal areas - including islands. Spatial changes in the average dwelling value reflect the (evolving) geography of economic performance and wealth accumulation in Greece. A comprehensive investigation of the role of economic downturns shaping dwelling values over space provides the appropriate background to inform post-crisis development measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Vinci, Sabato & Bartolacci, Francesca & Salvia, Rosanna & Salvati, Luca, 2022. "Housing markets, the great crisis, and metropolitan gradients: Insights from Greece, 2000–2014," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:80:y:2022:i:c:s0038012121001634
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2021.101171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012121001634
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2021.101171?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cerutti, Eugenio & Dagher, Jihad & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni, 2017. "Housing finance and real-estate booms: A cross-country perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Georgia Alexandri & Michael Janoschka, 2018. "Who Loses and Who Wins in a Housing Crisis? Lessons From Spain and Greece for a Nuanced Understanding of Dispossession," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 117-134, January.
    3. Mariateresa Ciommi & Francesco M. Chelli & Margherita Carlucci & Luca Salvati, 2018. "Urban Growth and Demographic Dynamics in Southern Europe: Toward a New Statistical Approach to Regional Science," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Paloma Taltavull de La Paz & Laura Gabrielli, 2015. "Housing Supply and Price Reactions: A Comparison Approach to Spanish and Italian Markets," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 1036-1063, October.
    5. Lelo, Keti & Monni, Salvatore & Tomassi, Federico, 2019. "Socio-spatial inequalities and urban transformation. The case of Rome districts," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Nobili, Andrea & Zollino, Francesco, 2017. "A structural model for the housing and credit market in Italy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 73-87.
    7. Manuel B. Aalbers, 2015. "The Great Moderation, the Great Excess and the global housing crisis," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 43-60, January.
    8. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Michael Storper, 2020. "Housing, urban growth and inequalities: The limits to deregulation and upzoning in reducing economic and spatial inequality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(2), pages 223-248, February.
    9. Costis Hadjimichalis, 2014. "Crisis and land dispossession in Greece as part of the global 'land fever'," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4-5), pages 502-508, October.
    10. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    11. Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Kyriaki Kosmidou & Dimitrios Kousenidis & Victoria Patsika, 2019. "The investigation of the dynamic linkages between real estate market and stock market in Greece," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 647-669, May.
    12. Ron Martin, 2011. "The local geographies of the financial crisis: from the housing bubble to economic recession and beyond," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 587-618, July.
    13. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1985. "A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 17(10), pages 1369-1391, October.
    14. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    15. Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2017. "Clustered housing cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 185-197.
    16. Shelburne Robert C. & Palacin Jose, 2006. "Is There an East European Housing Bubble?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-39, September.
    17. Karl Beitel, 2000. "Financial Cycles and Building Booms: A Supply Side Account," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(12), pages 2113-2132, December.
    18. Yener Coskun & Unal Seven & H. Murat Ertugrul & Ali Alp, 2020. "Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 50-86, January.
    19. Panayotis Kapopoulos & Fotios Siokis, 2005. "Stock and real estate prices in Greece: wealth versus 'credit-price' effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 125-128.
    20. Thomas Maloutas & Dimitra Siatitsa & Dimitris Balampanidis, 2020. "Access to Housing and Social Inclusion in a Post-Crisis Era: Contextualizing Recent Trends in the City of Athens," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(3), pages 5-15.
    21. Efthymiou, D. & Antoniou, C., 2013. "How do transport infrastructure and policies affect house prices and rents? Evidence from Athens, Greece," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-22.
    22. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Andrés Pinchao-Rosero, 2018. "When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 546-566, May.
    23. Giuseppe R. Lamonica & Maria C. Recchioni & Francesco M. Chelli & Luca Salvati, 2020. "The efficiency of the cross-entropy method when estimating the technical coefficients of input–output tables," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 62-91, January.
    24. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    25. Wang, Xiaoxiao & Shi, Ruiting & Zhou, Ying, 2020. "Dynamics of urban sprawl and sustainable development in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    26. Margherita Carlucci & Francesco Maria Chelli & Luca Salvati, 2018. "Toward a New Cycle: Short-Term Population Dynamics, Gentrification, and Re-Urbanization of Milan (Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-12, August.
    27. Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "Retail Building Cycles: Evidence from Great Britain," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 197-218.
    28. Luca Salvati, 2016. "The Dark Side of the Crisis: Disparities in per Capita income (2000–12) and the Urban-Rural Gradient in Greece," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(5), pages 628-641, December.
    29. Arvydas Jadevicius & Simon Hugh Huston, 2017. "How long is UK property cycle?," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 410-426, July.
    30. Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Andreas G. Merikas & Anna A. Merika & Anna Triantafyllou, 2012. "Explaining house price changes in Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 549-561, April.
    31. Tiziana Caliman, 2009. "The risk of falling house prices in Italy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(4), pages 401-423, December.
    32. Cesare Feliciantonio & Luca Salvati & Efthymia Sarantakou & Kostas Rontos, 2018. "Class diversification, economic growth and urban sprawl: evidences from a pre-crisis European city," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1501-1522, July.
    33. Sophocles Brissimis & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2009. "The Interaction between Mortgage Financing and Housing Prices in Greece," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 146-164, August.
    34. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Antonio Tomao & Giovanni Quaranta & Luca Salvati & Antonio Gimenez Morera, 2020. "Going toward Resilience? Town Planning, Peri-Urban Landscapes, and the Expansion of Athens, Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    35. Salvati, Luca & Ciommi, Maria Teresa & Serra, Pere & Chelli, Francesco M., 2019. "Exploring the spatial structure of housing prices under economic expansion and stagnation: The role of socio-demographic factors in metropolitan Rome, Italy," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 143-152.
    36. Mariateresa Ciommi & Francesco M. Chelli & Luca Salvati, 2019. "Integrating parametric and non-parametric multivariate analysis of urban growth and commuting patterns in a European metropolitan area," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 957-979, March.
    37. Vittorio Gargiulo Morelli & Kostas Rontos & Luca Salvati, 2014. "Between suburbanisation and re-urbanisation: revisiting the urban life cycle in a Mediterranean compact city," Urban Research & Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 74-88, January.
    38. Manuel B. Aalbers, 2015. "The Great Moderation, the Great Excess and the global housing crisis," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 43-60, January.
    39. Luca Salvati & Vittorio Gargiulo Morelli, 2014. "Unveiling Urban Sprawl in the Mediterranean Region: Towards a Latent Urban Transformation?," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 1935-1953, November.
    40. Coppola, Pierluigi & Nuzzolo, Agostino, 2011. "Changing accessibility, dwelling price and the spatial distribution of socio-economic activities," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 63-71.
    41. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    42. Bernardino Benito & Cristina Vicente & Francisco Bastida, 2015. "The Impact of the Housing Bubble on the Growth of Municipal Debt: Evidence from Spain," Local Government Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
    43. N. Apergis & A. Rezitis, 2003. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 799-804.
    44. Gala Cano Fuentes & Aitziber Etxezarreta Etxarri & Kees Dol & Joris Hoekstra, 2013. "From Housing Bubble to Repossessions: Spain Compared to Other West European Countries," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1197-1217, November.
    45. Tur-Sinai, Aviad & Fleishman, Larisa & Romanov, Dmitri, 2020. "The accuracy of self-reported dwelling valuation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    46. Barr, Jason & Cohen, Jeffrey P., 2014. "The floor area ratio gradient: New York City, 1890–2009," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 110-119.
    47. Nicholas Apergis, 2003. "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 63-74.
    48. Nick Drydakis, 2011. "Ethnic discrimination in the Greek housing market," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 1235-1255, October.
    49. Massimiliano Bencardino & Antonio Nesticò, 2017. "Demographic Changes and Real Estate Values. A Quantitative Model for Analyzing the Urban-Rural Linkages," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, March.
    50. Nicholas Apergis, 2003. "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 63-47.
    51. Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Eftathios Grigoriadis, 2016. "Crisis and the city: profiling urban growth under economic expansion and stagnation," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 329-342, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomao, Antonio & Quaranta, Giovanni & Salvia, Rosanna & Vinci, Sabato & Salvati, Luca, 2021. "Revisiting the ‘southern mood’? Post-crisis Mediterranean urbanities between economic downturns and land-use change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Kostas Rontos & Barbara Ermini & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Enlarging the divide? Per-Capita Income as a measure of social inequalities in a southern European City," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 345-361, February.
    3. Rosanna Salvia & Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati & Jesús Rodrigo-Comino & Giovanni Quaranta, 2020. "In-Between ‘Smart’ Urban Growth and ‘Sluggish’ Rural Development? Reframing Population Dynamics in Greece, 1940–2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati & Andrea Falcone & Giovanni Quaranta & Rosanna Salvia & Renata Vcelakova & Antonio Giménez-Morera, 2021. "Re-Framing the Latent Nexus between Land-Use Change, Urbanization and Demographic Transitions in Advanced Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, January.
    5. Gianluca Egidi & Giovanni Quaranta & Luca Salvati & Rosanna Salvia & Gimenez Morera Antonio, 2021. "Investigating density-dependent patterns of population growth in Southern Italy, 1861–2019," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, April.
    6. Kostas Rontos & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Mattia Gianvincenzi & Simona Moretti & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Toward a Spatially Segregated Urban Growth? Austerity, Poverty, and the Demographic Decline of Metropolitan Greece," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 2021. "Dynamic linkages among financial stability, house prices and residential investment in Greece," MPRA Paper 107833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Luca Salvati, 2022. "Endogenous Population Dynamics and Metropolitan Cycles: Long-Term Evidence from Athens, an Eternally Mediterranean City," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 835-860, December.
    9. Salvati, Luca, 2023. "Two wrongs don't make a right: A multi-step decomposition of latent dimensions of sustainable development and desertification risk in Italy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    10. Marco Zitti & Luca Salvati, 2017. "Recession and value of new dwellings: Changes in the spatial structure of Greece, 2003-2015," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 7(2), pages 1313-1313.
    11. Margherita Carlucci & Sabato Vinci & Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Socio-spatial Disparities and the Crisis: Swimming Pools as a Proxy of Class Segregation in Athens," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 937-961, June.
    12. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Antonio Tomao & Giovanni Quaranta & Luca Salvati & Antonio Gimenez Morera, 2020. "Going toward Resilience? Town Planning, Peri-Urban Landscapes, and the Expansion of Athens, Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Luca Salvati, 2022. "Exploring long-term urban cycles with multivariate time-series analysis," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 49(4), pages 1212-1227, May.
    14. Daniela Smiraglia & Luca Salvati & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Antonio Giménez-Morera & Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, 2021. "Toward a New Urban Cycle? A Closer Look to Sprawl, Demographic Transitions and the Environment in Europe," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, January.
    15. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    16. Tafirenyika Sunde & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2017. "Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(3), pages 389-407, July-Sept.
    17. D'Agata, Alessia & Alaimo, Leonardo Salvatore & Cudlín, Pavel & Salvati, Luca, 2023. "Easy come, easy go: Short-term land-use dynamics vis à vis regional economic downturns," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    18. Jesús Rodrigo-Comino & Barbara Ermini, 2021. "Are Cities Truly Dispersed? A Long-Term Analysis of Vertical Profile of Settlements in Athens’ Metropolitan Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, March.
    19. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    20. Alessia D’Agata & Giovanni Quaranta & Rosanna Salvia & Margherita Carlucci & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Mixed Land Use as an Intrinsic Feature of Sprawl: A Short-Term Analysis of Settlement Growth and Population Distribution Using European Urban Atlas," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:80:y:2022:i:c:s0038012121001634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.