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When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez

    (Central Bank of Colombia)

  • Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez

    (Central Bank of Colombia)

  • Jorge Hirs-Garzón

    (Universidad del Valle)

  • Andrés Pinchao-Rosero

    (Fedesarrollo)

Abstract

We study the existence and international transmission of housing market bubbles, using quarterly information of twenty OECD countries for the period comprised between 1970 and 2015. We find that housing bubbles are present in all the countries included in our sample. Multiple bubbles are found in all but two of those countries. We find five episodes of transmission. All of them had origin in the US housing bubble preceding the subprime crisis. Most transmissions were to European countries. Notably, the Spanish housing bubble was not a direct consequence of the US housing bubble. Its origin must be found in other causes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Andrés Pinchao-Rosero, 2018. "When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 546-566, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9605-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-017-9605-4
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    7. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Michelsen, Claus, 2019. "Zehn Jahre nach dem großen Knall: wie ist es um die Stabilität der internationalen Immobilienmärkte bestellt?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 67-87.
    8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Sebastian Kohl & Florian Müller, 2023. "Government-Made House Price Bubbles? Austerity, Homeownership, Rental, and Credit Liberalization Policies and the “Irrational Exuberance” on Housing Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2061, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Rafiq Ahmed & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Samina Khalil, 2021. "Bubble Detection in Housing Market: Evidence From a Developing Country," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    10. Wang, Xichen & Liu, Qingya, 2023. "Can the global financial cycle explain the episodes of exuberance in international housing markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Vinci, Sabato & Bartolacci, Francesca & Salvia, Rosanna & Salvati, Luca, 2022. "Housing markets, the great crisis, and metropolitan gradients: Insights from Greece, 2000–2014," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. J. Sebastian Amador-Torres & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Sebastian Sanin-Restrepo, 2017. "I know what you did during the last bubble: Determinants of housing bubbles' duration in OECD countries," Borradores de Economia 1005, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Murray, Cameron K., 2020. "Time is money: How landbanking constrains housing supply," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    14. Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2021. "Testing for exuberance in house prices using data sampled at different frequencies," Working Paper series 21-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Geoffrey Poitras & Giovanna Zanotti, 2018. "Housing Market Bubbles and Mortgage Contract Design: Implications for Mortgage Lenders and Households," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, July.
    16. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Bubble contagion: Evidence from Japan’s asset price bubble of the 1980-90s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 89-95.
    17. Jean-Louis Bago & Imad Rherrad & Koffi Akakpo & Ernest Ouédraogo, 2022. "An Empirical Investigation on Bubbles Contagion in Scandinavian Real Estate Markets," Businesses, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, March.
    18. Martijn Konings & Lisa Adkins & Dallas Rogers, 2021. "The institutional logic of property inflation," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(3), pages 448-456, May.
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    20. Lan, Hao & Moreira, Fernando & Zhao, Sheng, 2023. "Can a house resale restriction policy curb speculation? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 841-859.
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    22. Bago, Jean-Louis & Souratié, Wamadini M. & Ouédraogo, Moussa & Ouédraogo, Ernest & Dembélé, Alou, 2019. "Financial Bubbles : New Evidence from South Africa’s Stock Market," MPRA Paper 95685, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing bubbles; International transmission of bubbles; Recursive right-tailed unit root tests; OECD countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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