IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v56y2018i4d10.1007_s11146-017-9605-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez

    (Central Bank of Colombia)

  • Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez

    (Central Bank of Colombia)

  • Jorge Hirs-Garzón

    (Universidad del Valle)

  • Andrés Pinchao-Rosero

    (Fedesarrollo)

Abstract

We study the existence and international transmission of housing market bubbles, using quarterly information of twenty OECD countries for the period comprised between 1970 and 2015. We find that housing bubbles are present in all the countries included in our sample. Multiple bubbles are found in all but two of those countries. We find five episodes of transmission. All of them had origin in the US housing bubble preceding the subprime crisis. Most transmissions were to European countries. Notably, the Spanish housing bubble was not a direct consequence of the US housing bubble. Its origin must be found in other causes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Andrés Pinchao-Rosero, 2018. "When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 546-566, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9605-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-017-9605-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11146-017-9605-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-017-9605-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando Tenjo & Martha López, 2010. "Early Warning Indicators for Latin America," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 28(63), pages 232-259, December.
    2. Brent W. Ambrose & Piet Eichholtz & Thies Lindenthal, 2013. "House Prices and Fundamentals: 355 Years of Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 477-491, March.
    3. Emmanuel Farhi & Ricardo Caballero & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, "undated". "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," Working Paper 20933, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    4. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    5. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
    6. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2016. "Hot property in New Zealand: Empirical evidence of housing bubbles in the metropolitan centres," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 88-113, April.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    8. Jiang, Liang & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Yu, Jun, 2015. "New methodology for constructing real estate price indices applied to the Singapore residential market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 121-131.
    9. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Juan P. Franco & Jhon E. Torres, 2017. "Asset Price Bubbles: Existence, Persistence and Migration," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 52-67, March.
    10. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Crossman, 2014. "Episodes of exuberance in housing markets," Working Papers 64908732, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    11. de Bandt, O. & Barhoumi, K. & Bruneau, C., 2010. "The international transmission of house price shocks," Working papers 274, Banque de France.
    12. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    14. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    15. Olivier Bandt & Thomas Knetsch & Juan Peñalosa & Francesco Zollino (ed.), 2010. "Housing Markets in Europe," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-15340-2, January.
    16. Taylor, John B., 2013. "International monetary coordination and the great deviation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-472.
    17. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    18. Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2015. "The international transmission of credit bubbles: Theory and policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 37-56.
    19. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2007. "Regional housing market spillovers in the US: lessons from regional divergences in a common monetary policy setting," Working Paper Series 708, European Central Bank.
    20. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May.
    21. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December.
    22. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    23. repec:lan:wpaper:52032583 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    25. José E. Gómez-González & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Catalina Rey-Guerra & Natalia Sicard, 2015. "Testing for Bubbles in the Colombian Housing Market: A New Approach," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, August.
    26. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Heedon Kang, 2011. "Do Loan-To-Value and Debt-To-Income Limits Work? Evidence From Korea," IMF Working Papers 2011/297, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    28. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    29. Juan Amador & José Gómez-González & Andrés Pabón, 2013. "Loan growth and bank risk: new evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 365-379, December.
    30. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2013. "Low Interest Rates and Housing Bubbles: Still No Smoking Gun," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Cornelia Holthausen & George G Kaufman & Manfred Kremer (ed.), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability How Has It Changed?, chapter 8, pages 159-185, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    31. Mary Riddel, 2011. "Are Housing Bubbles Contagious? A Case Study of Las Vegas and Los Angeles Home Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(1), pages 126-144.
    32. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:477-491 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    35. Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
    36. Claudio Borio, 2010. "Ten propositions about liquidity crises," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(1), pages 70-95, March.
    37. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    38. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Louis Bago & Koffi Akakpo & Imad Rherrad & Ernest Ouédraogo, 2021. "Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Sanin-Restrepo, Sebastian, 2018. "The maple bubble: A history of migration among Canadian provinces," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-71.
    3. Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2021. "International Macroeconomic Aspect of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. Shuping Shi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2023. "Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 159-186, February.
    5. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2019. "Asymmetric adjustment, non-linearity and housing price bubbles: New international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Hamid Norfiqiri & Razali Muhammad Najib & Azmi Fatin Afiqah & Daud Siti Zaleha & Yunus Nurhidayah Md., 2022. "Prospecting Housing Bubbles in Malaysia," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(4), pages 74-88, December.
    7. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Michelsen, Claus, 2019. "Zehn Jahre nach dem großen Knall: wie ist es um die Stabilität der internationalen Immobilienmärkte bestellt?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 67-87.
    8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Sebastian Kohl & Florian Müller, 2023. "Government-Made House Price Bubbles? Austerity, Homeownership, Rental, and Credit Liberalization Policies and the “Irrational Exuberance” on Housing Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2061, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Rafiq Ahmed & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Samina Khalil, 2021. "Bubble Detection in Housing Market: Evidence From a Developing Country," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    10. Wang, Xichen & Liu, Qingya, 2023. "Can the global financial cycle explain the episodes of exuberance in international housing markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Vinci, Sabato & Bartolacci, Francesca & Salvia, Rosanna & Salvati, Luca, 2022. "Housing markets, the great crisis, and metropolitan gradients: Insights from Greece, 2000–2014," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. J. Sebastian Amador-Torres & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Sebastian Sanin-Restrepo, 2017. "I know what you did during the last bubble: Determinants of housing bubbles' duration in OECD countries," Borradores de Economia 1005, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Murray, Cameron K., 2020. "Time is money: How landbanking constrains housing supply," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    14. Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2021. "Testing for exuberance in house prices using data sampled at different frequencies," Working Paper series 21-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Geoffrey Poitras & Giovanna Zanotti, 2018. "Housing Market Bubbles and Mortgage Contract Design: Implications for Mortgage Lenders and Households," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, July.
    16. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Bubble contagion: Evidence from Japan’s asset price bubble of the 1980-90s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 89-95.
    17. Jean-Louis Bago & Imad Rherrad & Koffi Akakpo & Ernest Ouédraogo, 2022. "An Empirical Investigation on Bubbles Contagion in Scandinavian Real Estate Markets," Businesses, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, March.
    18. Martijn Konings & Lisa Adkins & Dallas Rogers, 2021. "The institutional logic of property inflation," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(3), pages 448-456, May.
    19. Nathan Burks & Adetokunbo Fadahunsi & Ann Marie Hibbert, 2021. "Financial Contagion: A Tale of Three Bubbles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-14, May.
    20. Lan, Hao & Moreira, Fernando & Zhao, Sheng, 2023. "Can a house resale restriction policy curb speculation? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 841-859.
    21. Hurn, Stan & Shi, Shuping & Wang, Ben, 2022. "Housing networks and driving forces," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    22. Bago, Jean-Louis & Souratié, Wamadini M. & Ouédraogo, Moussa & Ouédraogo, Ernest & Dembélé, Alou, 2019. "Financial Bubbles : New Evidence from South Africa’s Stock Market," MPRA Paper 95685, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rafiq Ahmed & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Samina Khalil, 2021. "Bubble Detection in Housing Market: Evidence From a Developing Country," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    2. Wei-Fong Pan, 2019. "Detecting bubbles in China’s regional housing markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1413-1432, April.
    3. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    4. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2019. "Asymmetric adjustment, non-linearity and housing price bubbles: New international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Sanin-Restrepo, Sebastian, 2018. "The maple bubble: A history of migration among Canadian provinces," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-71.
    6. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2020. "Explosive dynamics in house prices? An exploration of financial market spillovers in housing markets around the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Itamar Caspi, 2015. "Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel," Globalization Institute Working Papers 246, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Pavlidis, Efthymios & Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2019. "Detecting periods of exuberance: A look at the role of aggregation with an application to house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 87-102.
    9. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    10. Panagiotis Petris & George Dotsis & Panayotis Alexakis, 2022. "Bubble tests in the London housing market: A borough level analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1044-1063, January.
    11. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Juan P. Franco & Jhon E. Torres, 2017. "Asset Price Bubbles: Existence, Persistence and Migration," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 52-67, March.
    12. Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich, 2015. "Speculative bubbles, financial crises and convergence in global real estate investment trusts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(27), pages 2878-2898, June.
    13. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    14. Serhan Cevik & Sadhna Naik, 2024. "Bubble detective: City‐level analysis of house price cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 2-16, April.
    15. Andras Fulop & Jun Yu, 2017. "Bayesian Analysis of Bubbles in Asset Prices," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, October.
    16. Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
    17. Shuping Shi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2023. "Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 159-186, February.
    18. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    19. Caspi, Itamar, 2013. "Rtadf: Testing for Bubbles with EViews," MPRA Paper 58791, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2014.
    20. Yuchao Fan, 2022. "Dissecting the dot-com bubble in the 1990s NASDAQ," Papers 2206.14130, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing bubbles; International transmission of bubbles; Recursive right-tailed unit root tests; OECD countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9605-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.