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Detecting periods of exuberance: A look at the role of aggregation with an application to house prices

Author

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  • Pavlidis, Efthymios
  • Martínez-García, Enrique
  • Grossman, Valerie

Abstract

The recently developed SADF and GSADF unit root tests of Phillips and Yu (2011) and Phillips et al. (2015a,b) have become popular in the literature for detecting exuberance in asset prices. In this paper, we examine through simulation experiments the effect of cross-sectional aggregation on the power properties of these tests. The simulation design considered is based on simulated data and actual housing data for both U.S. metropolitan areas and international housing markets and thus allows us to draw conclusions for different levels of aggregation. Our findings suggest that aggregation lowers the power of both the SADF and GSADF tests. The effect, however, is much larger for the SADF test. We also provide evidence that tests based on panel data techniques, namely the panel GSADF test recently proposed by Pavlidis et al. (2016), can perform substantially better than univariate tests applied to aggregated series. Furthermore, we also illustrate the date-stamping procedure under the univariate/panel GSADF procedure uncovering novel evidence on the role of interest rates and policy uncertainty as factors explaining episodes of widespread mildly explosive dynamics in housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlidis, Efthymios & Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2019. "Detecting periods of exuberance: A look at the role of aggregation with an application to house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 87-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:87-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.07.021
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    Cited by:

    1. Lupu, Radu & Călin, Adrian Cantemir & Dumitrescu, Dan Gabriel & Lupu, Iulia, 2025. "Introducing a novel fragility index for assessing financial stability amid asset bubble episodes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    2. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2020. "Date-stamping multiple bubble regimes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 226-246.
    3. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2021. "A study on the bursting point of Bitcoin based on the BSADF and LPPLS methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Enrique Martínez García & Efthymios Pavlidis & Kostas Vasilopoulos, 2020. "exuber: Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing with R," Globalization Institute Working Papers 383, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 19 Oct 2021.
    5. Hudepohl, Tom & van Lamoen, Ryan & de Vette, Nander, 2021. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in stock markets: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. repec:rim:rimwps:18-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pavlidis, Efthymios G. & Vasilopoulos, Kostas, 2020. "Speculative bubbles in segmented markets: Evidence from Chinese cross-listed stocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. MeiChi Huang, 2025. "Revisiting housing asset pricing: uncertainty and business-cycle factors in US state-level housing markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(1), pages 1-25, March.
    9. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2019. "Property heterogeneity and convergence club formation among local house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    10. Cincinelli, Peter & Tsolacos, Sotiris & Urga, Giovanni, 2024. "Price exuberance episodes in private real estate," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Enrico C. Mira & Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Octávio A. F. Tourinho, 2025. "Testing for bubbles in the Brazilian commercial real estate market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(3), pages 1308-1325.
    12. repec:rim:rimwps:21-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2020. "Explosive dynamics in house prices? An exploration of financial market spillovers in housing markets around the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Rafiq Ahmed & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Samina Khalil, 2021. "Bubble Detection in Housing Market: Evidence From a Developing Country," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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