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Early Warning Indicators for Latin America

  • Fernando Tenjo

    ()

  • Martha López

    ()

We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economiesunder the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the resultsof previous work on industrialized countries, which indicate that a combination of asset pricesand credit provides valuable information of probable future financial crises. However, we go a stepfurther in the analysis of emerging economies and find that a combination of capital flows from abroadand credit is an even superior leading indicator of such events

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File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/espe_063-6.pdf
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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): 28 (2010)
Issue (Month): 63 (December)
Pages: 232-259

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:009438
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "The financial crisis and credit markets," Proceedings 1135, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  4. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, 03.
  5. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "La crisis," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(22), pages 15-60, January-J.
  6. Martha R. López & Juan D. Prada & Norberto Rodríguez Niño, 2008. "Financial Accelerator Mechanism in a Small Open Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004992, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "The Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 201-261.
  13. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  14. Oecd, 2010. "Labour markets and the crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 756, OECD Publishing.
  15. Fernando Tenjo & Luisa F. Charrry V. & Martha López & Juan M. Ramírez, 2007. "Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004019, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  16. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:14-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Potter, 2010. "Some observations and lessons from the crisis," Speech 25, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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